Invest Indonesia - Telco Industry - XL Axiata

For any developing country (especially with huge population), whenever the economy is on upward trend, banking sector and telco sector will definitely enjoy an extraordinary growth rate.

________________________________________________________________


Reference : write-up on 13-2-2011 on XL Axiata. Share price Rp5,200 ( NOW Rp6750 - up by 29% less than 3 months)

The share price move exceeded my target price of Rp6080-Rp6400.


To recap the information given in post dated 13-2-2011:-

Financial Highlight For Fy2010:- (as at 31-1-2011)

1. EPS : Rp 237 (FY09) > Rp 340 (FY10) + 43%
2. Total Asset = Rp 27,251 billion ( RM9.3 billion)
3. Total Liabilities = Rp 18,577 ( RM6.3 billion)
4. Equity = Rp 8,803 (RM 3 billion )
5. Dividend payout policy= 30% of normalised EPS

Comments:
a) Expect earning growth rate of minimum 20% for FY2011.
b) Increase in subscriber base and prepaid and postpaid revenue due to increase in income.
c) Expect record EPS for FY2011= Rp380 - Rp400
d) Target price = Rp6080 - Rp6400 based on 16x PER for Fy2011 ( upside 23% )
e) Therefore, any adjustment below Rp5000 will provide good opportunity to accumulate this counter.

________________________________________________________________________
Therefore, the next 2 telco companies to watch out :

1. INDOSAT - Rp5,300
2. TLKM - Rp7,700


Another Counter To Consider : TLKM.JK , Largest telco company in Indonesia. 52.47% owned by Indonesia government
1. Price = Rp7,600, Target Price 11,200 based on 16X PER of FY2011. (upside 47%)
2. Expected EPS FY2011 = Rp700

Earnings: It's Growth, but Not as Wall Street Has Known It - CNBC

Earnings: It's Growth, but Not as Wall Street Has Known It - CNBC

Companies like Microsoft [MSFT 25.52 -0.24 (-0.93%) ], PepsiCo [PEP 67.41 0.08 (+0.12%) ], and Coca-Cola [KO 67.88 0.03 (+0.04%) ], unloved on Wall Street, could turn out to be good buys if they can show they justify higher valuations than investors are now willing to give them.

AEONCR -5139

If AEONCR continue with the minimum 15% growth rate for coming 2 years, we should expect to see the following result:

Year 2012 = EPS 60 sen , Dividend = 30 sen ( 50% payout ratio)
Year 2013 = EPS 68 sen , Dividend = 34 sen.

Can you work out the fair value based on dividend yield computation ?

Therefore, target price of at least RM4.20 - 4.50 is achievable for mid-term AND longer term we may see the share price touching RM5.00 - 5.50 level.

China Raises Bank Reserves Again, More Tightening Seen - CNBC

China Raises Bank Reserves Again, More Tightening Seen - CNBC

Invest Indonesia: CIMB Niaga

1Q2011 financial result will be released probably end of April 2011. My estimation for quarterly EPS = Rp34.5 12M 2011 EPS = Rp138 Target price = Rp2070 based on 15x PER. IF, the quarterly result turn out to be better than my estimation, then we may be able to see the share price to move to the target price soon. Therefore, for short term trading strategic: Buy @ 1770 Sell @ 2050 ( potential upside 15.8% ) within a month. GOOD TRY! This counter is good because it provide opportunity for short term investors and long term investors (if client want to invest for time horizon up to 3 years).

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update-11-4-2011

TRADESZONE4U PORTFOLIO			SINCE:	25-10-2011
CAPITAL (RM)	250,000		TO-DATE RETURN			5.23	%
Company	Qty	Ave Cost	Current Price	Total Cost	Mkt Value	P/ L	%
			11-4-2011
CIMB NIAGA	50,000	0.547	0.6052	27,560	30,038	2,478	8.99
AEONCR	10,000	3.700	4.0600	37,270	40,303	3,033	8.14
GAMUDA	20,000	3.810	3.8400	76,757	76,239	-518	-0.67
KFIMA	30,000	1.550	1.6100	46,500	47,947	1,447	3.11
SHARES			(1)	188,088	194,527	6,440	3.42
TRUST BALANCE			(2)	61,912	61,912
REALISED GAIN					6,646	6,646
TOTAL SHARES AND CASH ( B+C )			(3)=(1)+(2)	250,000	263,086	13,086	5.23
						-

AEONCR (5139)- Good Dividend Yield Counter

Finally, after waiting for 10 months the share price break RM4.00. Recommended on 24-6-2010 @ RM3.90 and continue to call for buy at RM3.70 level. Share price move above RM4.00 pending dividend announcement due mid of April. From April - Sept 2011 ( 6 months period), AEONCR will pay dividend of RM0.23-RM0.25. Therefore, target price of RM4.20-4.30 is achievable. Furtheremore, AEONCR has the ability to issue bonus shares to its shareholders.

Invest Indonesia-Banking - BBTN

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) : Recommended on 20 February 2011- Rp1350 . 5-4-2011 Price : Rp1700 ( up by 25% within 2 months ). Take profit.

Invest Indonesia

WHY Invest Indonesia :

1. Population : 240 MILLION and purchase power of the middle class working group will continue to drive the economy growth.
2. Country is going through a total restructuring/economy revolution in order to be able to compete with other Asian countries.
3. Great opportunities emerge as Indonesia government will continue to upgrade its infrastructure, enhance banking system, implement friendly business policies and Indonesia is rich in natural resources also.

Beside performing bottom up investment approach by zoom into particular stock, i find that a stock screening tool developed by APF Trading may help investors to save a lot of time in picking stock. Expert Stock Screener will help to provide a list of undervalued stock based on fundamental and technical approach and investor can zoom in the particular for further stock analysis.