TH Plantation

Earning pick up probably to EPS 20 cts. Potentially pay 10 cts dividend.
TP RM2.40-2.60 based on 12-13 PER. Another selling point is TH Plantation still has plenty of unplanted areas for future expansion.

TWSPLNT : Any Corporate Restructuring?

Price moving up with vol increase to >1500 lots. Today up 30 cts (RM3.40).
Watch out for next target RM3.90 before reaching RM4.50.

Note : Refer to post dated 21-Dec-2010 on TWSPLANT.

Invest Indonesia-Kencana Agri

1. Kencana Agri listed on SGX and trading at SGD0.42.
2. Wilmar came in as strategic alliance in August 2010 by bought over 20% share offer at USD38 million ( approximately SGD0.35 per share)
3. Futures growth of the company will very much depend on it non-planted areas and young age palm tree.

Landbank and Planted Areas:-















Palm Oil Tree Age Profile:-















Futures Growth:-

Investment Strategic:
1. Investment Horizon 2-3 years
2. Potential upside : 43% - 78% ( Target Price SGD 0.60 to SGD 0.74 based on PE13x on FY2012 and FY2013 )

China increase benchmark rate: Impact On Commodity Market

Commodity prices have been going up and cause inflation remain at high level . However, market eventually will adjust by itself and find a balance point to settle at the fair price for the commodity. With the surprise action taken by China government to increase the benchmark rate, it clearly show that the government do not wish to to see the people facing problem in buying expensive food items during the festive season.

Therefore, commodity market may going through a correction and this may give some impetus for profit taking activity before the end of 2010 and provide opportunity to buy on dip.

Ideas: The average selling price for CPO 4Q2010 = RM3200 ( an increase of 24% compared to 3Q2010). Therefor, ready to buy plantation counter when opportunity emerge and hope to see plantation company to report better financial result due to release on early of February.
Counter : Golden Agri, First Resource, ( Singapore ), IOI, TWSPLANT, KFIMA and etc ( Malaysia)

China's Central Bank Raises Interest Rates for Second Time

Quoted from CNBC news dated 25-12-2010:

China's central bank raised interest rates on Saturday for the second time in just over two months as it stepped up its battle to rein in stubbornly high inflation.

The People's Bank of China said it will raise the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent and lift the benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.

The central bank said in a statement on its website (www.pbc.gov.cn) that the latest rate rise would take effect on Sunday.

The move came after Beijing said earlier in December it was switching to a "prudent" monetary policy, from its earlier "moderately loose" stance.

Analysts said the change of wording, along with a recent pledge by top leaders to make inflation fighting a top priority for 2011, could pave the way for more interest rate increases and lending controls.

"This rate hike demonstrates Chinese authorities' determination to keep inflation under control up front, or front-loaded tightening," said Qing Wang, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. "Compared to rate hikes in the beginning of next year, a rate hike before year-end will have a more tightening impact, as the interest rates on the medium- and long-term loans and deposits are reset at the beginning of each year according to the base rates."

The central bank said on Friday it will deploy a range of policy tools to head off inflationary pressures and asset bubbles.

To tame price pressures, China raised interest rates on Oct 19 for the first time in nearly three years. The consensus of analysts polled by Reuters this month was for three rate rises of 25 basis points each by the end of next year.

Along with playing a key role in the fight against inflation, policy tightening also signals the government's confidence that the world's second-largest economy is on solid ground, even as the U.S. and European recoveries remain fragile.

While almost all investors and analysts thought more policy tightening was coming, there was uncertainty about whether the central bank would raise rates before the end of the year.

The central bank opted to raise banks' reserve requirements on Nov 19 ahead of data which showed inflation hit a 28-month high of 5.1 percent.

"We expected a rate hike by the end of the year, though Christmas Day is something of a surprise—a rate hike is not normally on the wish-list for Santa Claus, but in China's case this is a prudent move," said Brian Jackson, economist with Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

"We think it is increasingly clear that using quantitative measures, such as reserve ratios, to rein in liquidity and credit has not been enough, and that adjusting the price of credit—that is, interest rates—is needed to get price pressures under control."

Chinese stock markets have shed nearly 10 percent since mid-November on concerns the government would ratchet up its monetary policy tightening in face of rising inflation.

China has also officially increased banks' required reserve requirements six times this year and restricted lending by them.

In addition, Beijing has taken a slew of steps to cool the property sector, trying to ward off a potential asset bubble.

PJD-WC (1945WC)

Instrument Type : Warrants

Description : Warrants issued pursuant to the Rights Issue and Restricted Issue

Listing Date : 13/12/2010

Issue Date : 06/12/2010

Issue/ Ask Price : MYR 0.0200

Issue Size in Unit : 213,811,972

Maturity Date : 05/12/2020

Revised Maturity Date :

Exercise/Conversion Period Type : 10 Year(s)

Revised Exercise/Conversion Period Type : 0 Year(s)

Exercise/ Strike/ Conversion Price : MYR 1.0000

Revised Exercise/ Strike/ Conversion Price : MYR 0.0000

Exercise/ Conversion Ratio : 1 : 1

Revised Exercise/ Conversion Ratio :

Mode of Satisfaction of Exercise/Conversion Price : Cash

Settlement Type/ Convertible into : Physical (Shares) PJD (1945): Dividend payment : 5 sen from 2007-2010 ( DY of 6%) NTA : RM1.85 (as at 30-9-2010) EPS : 10 sen ( PE 8.4x) Share price moving steadily and any breakout at 88 sen will drive the share price to RM1.02 -RM1.30. Therefore, PJD-WC (price RM 0.31 ) may go up also.

AEONCR (5139)- Good Dividend Yield Counter

Reported 3Q11 EPS of 13.4 sen and estimate to deliver better result due to upcoming festive seasons with target EPS of 14 sen for 4Q11. ( EPS for FY2011 approximately 50 sen ).
AEONCR currently trading at PE 7.5X based on share price RM3.70. However, I think AEONCR should enjoy higher PER as the company business is continue to grow at healthy pace.

PE 8X - RM4.00
PE 9X - RM4.50
PE 10x - RM5.00

Dividend announced in Sept 2010 =11.5 sen

Based on 50% dividend payout ratio, coming April 2011 may announce another 13.5 sen.

Full year DY = 0.24 / 3.70 = 6.5%.

Again, if AEONCR wish to enlarge its share capital by issuing bonus, the share price may move to RM4.30-RM4.50 or even higher.

Accumulate at this level.

TWSPLNT : Any Corporate Restructuring?

1. Estimated EPS of RM0.32 ( PE 10x ).
2. Potential bonus issue candidate.
3. Maybe sales of asset to realise cash to pay down debt to clean up the balance sheet.

Target price : RM4.16 based on PE 13x and improved balance sheet position.
Dividend payment : 2010 = RM0.10 per shares, 2009 = RM0.06 per shares.

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update

Date:- 19-12-2010 Start Date: 25-10-2010

Portfolio Investment:- RM250,000
____________________________________________________________________
MOVEMENT:

Buy KFIMA 30,000 shares @ 1.55 ( building up new support level at RM1.55 )
Buy Gamuda 20,000 shares @ 3.82 ( project confirm secured )


INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO:
AEONCR = 10,000 @ 3.70
GAMUDA = 20,000 @ 3.81
KFIMA = 30,000 @ 1.55

Cash Balance: RM90,000 (36% of portfolio)

Strategic: 3 to 6 months, Realised Gain : RM5,500 ( since 25-10-2010 )
Potential Return : 15%

Invest Indonesia:- CIMB-NIAGA..Riding on Indonesia Growth Story

On 26 Jul 2010, The Shareholders of CIMB Group approved the acquisition of up to 19.67% stake in CIMB Niaga from Khazanah. As of 30 Sep 2010, CIMB Group held 97.9% shares of CIMB Niaga



Stock Valuation :-






Investment Horizon For 3 Years : Target Price Rp 4920



Notes : If based on China story (huge population), the EPS growth rate for its banking sector is at least 20% and above for few years and move in tandem with it GDP.

As Indonesia is going through a major economy reformation, the momentum of its growth rate will be very strong because of the huge population (similar to China).

Tabung Haji Plantation

Closing Price = RM1.75.
Volume increase to > 6K shares

Selling points for this counters:-
1. Estimated EPS FY2010 = RM0.17
2. Dividend payment = RM0.08 , this year may pay up yo RM0.10 ( 5.7% )
3. EPS may improve further because THPlant has 118K ha of landbank but planted areas just around 42K ha.

Short term target price : RM1.88 - RM2.04 ( PE 12X based on EPS of RM0.17 )
If EPS further improve, target price may go up to RM2.30.

Storm in the market?

HOLD MORE CASH IN HAND IS ALWAYS THE CORRECT STRATEGY WHEN UNCERTAINTY IS AHEAD OF US.

China- To Curb Inflation

China's consumer price index of November rose by 5.1 percent year on year, the fastest clip in 28 months, giving rise to greater concern over tightening measures from both consumers and analysts.

China's central bank Friday announced the third increase of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks in a month, an unprecedented move pointing to the urgency of curbing runaway lending amid accelerating inflation. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on its website that it would lift the bank reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points from December 20. Banks will have to set aside 18.5 percent of their reserves after the sixth such hike this year.

Refer back to my post in 20-11 2010:-

Uncertainties are ahead of us in the stock market. Maybe is time to reduce shareholding and hold cash. With the cash, we may be able to enjoy the "good cheap sales" after selling down due to market adjustment.

AEONCR - It just a dividend dield counter ?

AEON - Jaya Jusco

Like to do shopping at AEON (Jusco)? Have you ever checked the interest rate charged by AEONCR for Jusco installment scheme ? Go and check by yourself then you will find why I like AEONCR. Based on AEON track records, if an investor invested 1000 shares AEON in year 2000, now he should have 4000 shares of AEON and with decent dividend every year for the past 10 years.

AEONCR:
1. Dividend - 23 cts to 25 cts ( DY of 6% ) and still on upward trend.
2. Potential bonus issue 91:1) candidate which will help to push up the share price to RM4.20-4.50 before ex-bonus.Follow by attracting more investor to look into this counter and further push up the share price from 2.10 (ex-price) to probably 2.50.

If you invested at 1000 @ 3.70 level and hopefully sell at 2000 @ 2.50 = 35% potential gain.

Hope the above scenario come true within 1 year from now. Good Luck !

CIMB Niaga (Indonesia)

Share price shot up to Rp 2575 and trading at PE of 25X.
Strong earning growth rate of 50% for coming year will push the share price to

Rp 2500 @ PE 16X
Rp 3000 @ PE 20X

Therefore, for those who bought at Rp2200 and below in less than 2 months ago should consider to cash out if price reach Rp3000.

Another 2 counters going to cover will be Indocement and Holcim.

CIMB-NIAGA

Earning picking up strongly after post-merger with Bank Lippo and Bank Niaga.
EPS up to 9M2010 = 75 Rp, 12M 2010 approximately = 100Rp
Share Price as at 29-11-2010 = 1650 Rp ( trading @ 16.5X)

Industry Ranking : 5th largest bank in Indonesia

Recommendation : Accumulate below 1500Rp

China rise required reserve ratio

China government increase the RRR by 50 basis points aimed at strengthen the liquidity management and tighthening the banks' credit lending.

Uncertainties are ahead of us in the stock market. Maybe is time to reduce shareholding and hold cash. With the cash, we may be able to enjoy the "good cheap sales" after selling down due to market adjustment caused by portfolio readjustment by the big boy.

Good Luck!

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update

Date:- 15-11-2010 Start Date: 25-10-2010

Portfolio Investment:- RM250,000
____________________________________________________________________
MOVEMENT:
Profit Taking by selling KFIMA 60,000 shares @ 1.37 ( realised RM5,500 )


INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO:
AEONCR = 10,000 @ 3.70
GAMUDA = 10,000 @ 3.80
KFIMA = Nil

Cash Balance: RM179,932

Strategic: 3 to 6 months,
Potential Return : 15%

Traderszone4u Portfolio Updates

Date:- 1-11-2010

Portfolio Investment:- RM250,000
______________________________________________________________________

MOVEMENT:
BUY KFIMA additional 30,000 shares @ 1.24. ( KFIMA quarterly result is due for announcement somewhere early of November 2010 and expect to deliver better earning than 1Q result)


INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO:
AEONCR = 10,000 @ 3.70
GAMUDA = 10,000 @ 3.80
KFIMA = 60,000 @ 1.26

Cash Balance: RM98,337.22

Strategic: 3 to 6 months,
Potential Return : 15%

TRADERSZONE4U PORTFOLIO

Date:- 25-10-2010

Portfolio Investment:- RM250,000
______________________________________________________________________

COUNTER QTY
AEONCR = 10,000 @ 3.70
GAMUDA = 10,000 @ 3.80
KFIMA = 30,000 @ 1.28

Cash Balance: RM136,375.36

Strategic: 3 to 6 months,
Potential Return : 15%

Stock Watch : OCT 2010

KFIMA-6491( RM1.12)
Dividend 5 cents ex-date on 29-9-2010.
Continue to accumulate as this share trading below PE 5X for its FY11.

AEONCR-3.78
Dividend 11 cents ex-date last week. AEONCR normally will pay dividend twice a year (Apr and Sept). Accumulate at this level.

AFFIN Bank
Trading at relatively vey attractive PE of 10X. Target price of RM3.60 based on 12X PE for FY11.

For trading purpose, AFFIN-CA (RM0.24, ex-price 2.45, 1:3, expiry 28 Feb 2011) and AFFIN-CC (RM0.165, ex-price 2.70, 1:4, expiry 15 Apr 2011)
IF Affin Bank move to RM3.60 / 3.80, the intrinsic value:
Affin-CA - RM0.380 / RM0.450
Affin-CC - RM0.225 / RM0.275

GAMUDA and GAMUDA-WD :
Most broket give target price range from 4.20-4.50.
I like Gamuda-WD because it still has another 5 years life-span (expire date : 25-5-2015)

Time for Warrant ?

Gamuda : Target price given by some broker house range from 4.20-4.80 level.

Gamuda WD (RM1.40):-
Expiry in year 2015.
Exercise Price= RM2.66

IF.. Gamuda moving up to RM4.50, WD will be RM1.84 (30% potential upside)

Moving to Defensive Counters

How far can the KLCI move further? 1450, 1480 or 1500 some say 1600.

The next strategy will be:
1.) Take profit and cash out at least 50% of your portfolio.
2) Move to high dividend yield and defensive counters i.e.
a) AEONCR---DY 5.6% and potential bonus issue
b) NCB --- DY 6.75%

KFIMA-6491

Earning will be enhanced to higher level toward EPS of RM0.25 to RM0.30.
It related subsidiary company-FIMACOR (3107) posted better quarterly result and contribute EPS of RM0.05 for KFIMA quarterly. Hope to see the items improve:
1. EPS from 0.20 to 0.25 / 0.30
2. cash per shares from 0.48 to 0.55 ( increase 0.07 per quarter), whole year cash per shares could be RM0.70 per shares.
3. retained earning improved from RM48 million to RM68 million.

Target Price: RM1.75 - RM2.10 based on PE 7X.

KFIMA (6491) building up volume this week, hope can maintain price above RM1.10-RM1.14 level.

PE = 5X
DY= 4.3%
Healthy balance sheet and sustainable business model.
Target Price = RM1.26-RM1.44



AEONCR (5139), continue to accumulate at this level.

Update on Recomended Counters

KFIMA : slowly building up at RM1.04 level. Pending financial result to be released this month, continue to accumulate at this level and wait for RM1.15-RM1.20.

AEONCR: Continue to accumulate at RM3.80-RM3.90 level.

CPO : Price moving upward

CPO price moving steadily toward RM2,700 level (spot month). Watch out for plantation counters. Golden Agri re-test SGD0.60 level on Monday and once breaking SGD0.62 resistance, it may go further up again to SGD0.65 to SGD0.70 level. With the acquisition of China food company and the sales network, i expect the revenue from China may contribute significantly.

KFIMA

Moving slowly with tight volume.
Pending financial result to be released end of next month ( 1 month from now), I think now is the right time to accumulate for those who miss below RM1.00 level.
Target Price?
EPS= RM0.18 , PE = 7 x to 8 X ..Fair Value = RM1.26 to RM1.44 ( 20%-40% upside compared to limited downside risk of around 10%. Good Buy.

COCOLAND (7205)

Time to cash out. Two months provide 42% return ( refer post dated 13-5-2010 ).
Exceeded my fair value. If the price continue to move further, let it be and find another good counter for next 3-6 months investment.

KFIMA (stock code:6491) - will be my next counter.
Price hold well at RM0.93-0.94 level. Start to accumulate.

China Economic Slow Down

The US Conference Board revised its leading economic indicator index for China in April to a rise of only 0.3 per cent from its previously reported 1.7 per cent, on account of a calculating error.

Whether the figures is correct or wrong, a minor adjustment for China market is healthy for long term growth.

Get ready for this down turn and we may be able to make atleast 10%-20% by year-end.

Golden Agri: buy SGD0.50 and below.
Level 1 : 0.500
Level 2 : 0.475
Level 3 : 0.450

KFIMA-another FABER?

Fundamentally good with EPS estimated atleast 18 sen for FY2010. Building up in cash in hand RM128 million. Business include manufacturing, bulking and plantation.

Good entry point at RM0.95 and below.

COCOLAND (7205)

COCOLAND price find a very good support at RM1.40 level and today its price break 1.55 with volume increase > 1.4 million share traded. Something is going on. Maintain TP- RM1.80

AEONCR (5139)

If you think Jusco business is good and most people like to shop there, then you should consider to buy AEONCR-RM3.90 :-

1. Good dividend yield 5%
2. Potential bonus issue this year/next year based on AEON track record.
3. Target price given by OSK Research- RM4.90

Golden Agri

Golden Agri price find good support at SGD0.48 with CPO price trading at range 2370-2450 level. Therefore, we may start to buy again for price SGD0.50 and below if opportunity emerge.

Golden Agri closed at SGD0.53 on 14-6-2010.

Uncertainty and Volatile Market: Any Oppotunity?

Strategic for May-July 2010:

1. Defensive and low gearing companies.
2. Potentially giving out dividend.
3. Potentially announce bonus issue.

Counter to watch:
KSL : start to accumulate below RM1.40. Strong retained earning sufficient to issue any bonus.
Based on track record, in May is the announcement period for dividend ( appro. 8 sen for
this year)
CoColand: Price well maintain at RM1.40. Healthy balance sheet.
Golden Agri : Financial result just released and show robust performance. (TP SGD 0.68 )

Crude Palm Oil

CPO production unexpectedly drop 5.84% and inventory level drop 2%.
The recent CPO price hold well at 2480-2525 level become the immediate support level. With the first 5 days export figure show +21.8% (by ITS), I think CPO will trending upward again.

Buy Golden Agri -SGD0.55.

Crude Palm Oil

1. Inventory figure will be released next Monday (10/5/10)- expect to increase due to increase in output and dropping in export.
2. Scenario will be not encouraging with recent credit tightening policy by Chinese Government.
3. For this month, CPO price may test RM2378 level.

KSL (5038)
1. Property counter with EPS 0.24 (PE 5.7X)
2. Private placement @ 1.18
3. Based on track record, bonus issue in year 2003 and 2007. KSL healthy balance sheet showed that the company able call for another bonus issue maybe this year/next year.
4. TP 1.70 based on PE 7X.



APB :
1. Share price adjusted after dividend and some selling pressure due to disappointed earning for last quarter result. However, if we look into its account, cash per share jump to 57 cents per shares. Last quarter EPS less than 10 cents may due to its operating cost after the new plant started to operate.
2. Share price currently maintain at RM1.10 level.
3. Time to average and accumulate and wait for next financial result.


COCOLAND

1. Share price maintained at RM1.33 for past few weeks.
2. Share price start to try 1.41 level.
3. If break 1.45, Cocoland my try next level @ 1.60


AFFIN
1. Two research houses give TP of RM300-3.25 level2.
2. Share price trading at RM2.86. Next level should be RM3.20 with improved earning.



GOLDEN AGRI-S'PORE
1. CPO price trading at RM2700 level. Low production will push up the CPO price to 2,878-3,083 level
2. Trading at SGD 0.56. Once break 0.60 level, we may expect 0.65 followed by 0.70 level for coming 1-2 months

Stock Pick: 15%-20% potential upside

APB :
Share price well maintain at RM1.20. Good entry at 1.18-1.19 level.
Accumulate and wait for 3-6 months for next financial result.

COCOLAND
1. Healthy balance sheet with improved earning.
2. EPS - appro. 14 cent
3. Good entry at 1.26-1.35 level.

AFFIN
1. Two reserach hourses give TP of RM300-3.25 level
2. Share price maintain at 2.55 level
3. Accumulate at 2.30-2.50 level.

GOLDEN AGRI-S'PORE
1. Profit taking started from SGD0.65-SGD0.58
2. Start to accumulate - below SGD0.53

China Market- Any Adjustment?

China government may increase its interest rate again if the economy is over-heated. The market will adjust according and I think 10% adjustment will be a comfortable level for post financial crisis. Therefore, whenever any adjustment take place, remember to seek opportunity to enter the market.

For mid-to-long term investors, defensive and high dividend yield counters will be able to cushion any downward adjustment.

Recommended sectors:
1. Banking
2. Infrastruture
3. Consumer Product
4. Commodity

HK Market...Any opportunities?

Watch out for following counters if you want to take advantage on HK market.

1. ICBC Bank - HKD 5.90 ( trading buy @ 5.80-5.60 )
2. BOC - HKD 4.00 ( trading buy at 3.80-3.60 )
3. Hopewell - HKD 5.00 ( accumulate at 4.80-4.60 level, TP 6.00 )

WHY Hong Kong?

1. Liquidity - the turnover is 38X more than M'sia n market
2. Volatility - able to take advantage on the price fluctuation.

Golden Agri..Profit Taking?

The share price hit highest @ SGD0.655 on Monday. Suggested client to sell atleast 50% of the holding. Waiting for the right timing to re-enter again.

Entry point : Level 1 : SGD 0.55 #
Level 2 : SGD 0.50 #
Level 3 : SGd 0.45 #

Today Golden Agri closed @ SGD 0.59. If CPO price continue to drop, I think the share price may go down to the suggested entry price#.

CPO Invenroty increase to 2.2million tonne

With the increase in inventory level, the CPO price can not hold firmly at 2600 level. The CPO price may trading downward toward RM2350 level if the following happen:

1. export figure decrease
2. production increase

However, the CPO price may rebound back to 2600-2800 in the event the existing cold whether persist and production from other seed oil decrease.

Sort Term Trading Strategy:

Long : Level 1 : 2480
Level 2 : 2430
Level 3 : 2385

Short : Level 1 : 2550
Level 2 : 2580
Level 3 : 2625

Golden Agri and CPO Counter...CNY Ang Pow

Recap on BUY CALL on this counter on 18 Nov 2009 (SGD 0.46).


Today Golden Agri closed at SGD 0.575 ( up by 25% in less than 2 months ).

Looking at CPO price may continue its upward trend toward Feb 2010, Golden Agri may extended it movement and try to break SGD0.60 level and go higher toward SGD0.70-0.75 level.

CPO price has been moving firmly from 2200 level in October 2009 until now 2700 level (up by 22%). I believe most of the plantation companies will report better quarter result. Therefore, for those looking for CNY Ang Pow, you may try plantation counters.

Tier 1 plantation counter: RM1.00+/-
1. CEPAT-RM1.00
2. TANAMAS (GLBHD)-RM0.92

Tier 2 plantation counter: RM2.00-RM4.00
1. IJMPLNT-RM2.57
2. KMLOONG-R2.20
3. BSTEAD-RM3.46

Tier 3 plantation counter: RM4 and above
1. GENPLNT - RM6.40
2. UMCCA-RM7.96

Risk to the above suggestion: crude oil and soybean oil prices drop sharply.