When is the right time to enter share market?

Global markets tumbled again due to:
1. The contagion effect of sub-prime mortgage issue.
2. Winding down on Yen Carry Trade cousing commodities prices tumbled sharply. Oil price today hit USD$64.
3. Consumer spending power deterioting badly in US and Europe and will affect the global demand for goods. Therefore, the chain effect will spread widely and fast to whole world.

Personal views on the timing to enter shares market;
1. The weak global consumer consumption will turn bad after Christmas and Chinese New Year.
2. Global production figures will reduce and jobless rate will increase sharply.

Therefore, the right timing to enter may be somewhere after May/June 2009. Unless some meaningful fiscal policies take and help to boost the economy.

Current strategies for existing portfolio will be :
1. Take profit for TM@3.36 and realised profit of RM1,600. Hold cash
2. Buy t0 average NCB 10,000 shares@2.30. Buy to average TMI 2,000 shares@4.60.

Strategies:Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a

Equity Investment: Fund =RM151,400 , Invested =RM113,500
Buy Genting 10,000@5.15
Buy Genting 2,000@4.60 ( Average price is RM5.06 )
Buy NCB 10,000@3.00
Buy NCB 10,000@2.30 ( Average price is RM2.65 )

Futures & Options Investment:Amount = RM50,000 (Open position)
Short 2 FKLI Contract @845 points

Money Market: 3% retutn : Amount =RM50,000
As at 25-9-2008= Interest return is RM657
From 26-9-08 to 25-10-2008 interest return is RM123.28 ( Total interest return will be RM780)

Taking Private !

When share price is trading low below its fair value with major shareholder hold more than 30%, the likelihood is to privatise the company. Company to watch out : Ranhill

Ranhill
The earning per share from RUBHD may contribute up to RM0.24. With the major shareholder hold more than 50%, I think sooner or later may taking private. The existing NTA of RM0.61 ( last quarter losses after dispose oil exploration activities) and current share price below RM0.80 plus some support at RM0.65 level provide good opportunity to accumulate this counter.

Investment Strategic Update-25-09-2008

Market views:
1. If the US Congress passsed the USD$700 billion bailout, I believe this move will help to instill the "temporary" confident and market will stabalise for while.
2. Therefore, good timing for trading buy in certain counters and Buy Call for NCB

Stock pick:
i) Buy TM 10,000 shares@3.20 (Investment value=RM32,000)
ii) Buy Genting 10,000 shares@5.15 (Investment value=RM51,500)
iii) Buy NCB 10,000 share@3.00 (Investment value =RM32,000), medium to long term investment

Strategies:Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a
Equity Investment: Fund =RM150,000 Invested =RM113,500
Buy TM 10,000@3.20
Buy Genting 10,000@5.15
Buy NCB 10,000@3.00


Futures & Options Investment:
Amount = RM50,000 (No position)

Money Market: 3% retutn
Amount = RM200,000 Withdraw =RM150,000
New Position =RM50,000
15-8-2008 to 25-9-2008 Interest return is RM657

2H08 Investment Strategics For M'sia Market

The overall market sentiment is still blink and the outlook for 2H08 also uncertain with political unstability and inflation pressure. Results:
1. Reduce in corporate earning
2. For good management, cost push will force them to increase their operation efficiency.
3. Commodities price will still volatile but will stabalise probably toward the end of 1Q2009.
4. CPO price may retreat to RM2,000 level if oil price drop to USD$100 and below.
5. Downward bias for equity market for atleast another two quaters.
6. Parking fund in money market and seek trading opportunities in futures market.


Strategies:
Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a

Equity Investment: Nil
Will buy for trading if market drop more than 30 points. Wait for opportunities.


Futures & Options Investment:
Amount = RM50,000

Money Market: 3% retutn
Amount = RM200,000