Malaysia General Election-13. (5 May 2013)

More information available at

malaysiakinihttp://www.malaysiakini.com/en/

Affin Bank(stock code 5185) : TP RM4.16

Affin Bank just released 3rd quarter result with EPS=10.82 sen.
YTD 3 quarters EPS = 30.63 sen
Dividend announced = 15 sen ( dividend policy of 50%)

Current Price = RM3.37, target price of RM4.16 (23% upside) based on DY of 5% IF the FY2012 EPS achieve 41.63 sen and expect another round of dividend of 5 sen.

Short term target range RM3.47-RM3.82.

Good Luck !

AFFIN BANK (Stock 5185)

If you are looking for counter with dividend yield 5.2%-5.8% and potential capital return of 8%-10% within 3 months, why not try AFFIN Bank.

Current Price   =  RM3.34
EPS FY2012   =  approx. RM0.40
Potential DPS =   RM0.15 - RM0.20
Target price    =   RM3.70-RM3.90

AFFIN Bank (Stock Code 5185)

Listed on : Malaysia Stock Exchange
Sector : Banking
Share Price : RM3.25

The Board of Directors of AFFIN ("Board") wishes to announce that with effect from financial year 2012, the Company will be adopting a dividend policy to pay a minimum dividend based on 50% of the Company's profit after taxation for each financial year, provided the distribution would not be detrimental to the Company's cash requirement or any plans approved by the Board.
(This announcement is dated 25 May 2012.)

Belows are  the profit track records and dividend paid for Affin Bank:-

Affin Bank has been consistently pay out dividend once a year and normally announce on November of each calendar year. Therefore, if the projected result achieve EPS of approximately RM0.40, investors should expect a dividend of RM0.20 per shares of which provide dividend yield of 6.1%.

If based on dividend yield of 5%, fair value = RM3.96 (21% upside).

Therefore, investors can start to accumulate Affin Bank at current level and accumulate more if price weaken further.  

Comments:- Buy RM3.25

1. Enjoy dividend yield of 6% better than fixed deposit rate.

2. Potential capital return if share price move to RM3.70-RM3.96.

3. Strong shareholding e.g LTAT, government linked company.

4. Potential M & A target.

GOOD LUCK!

Investment Strategy : SIM 1-2-3

Strategy : Simple Investment Model 1-2-3 (SIM-1-2-3)
 
If you want to trade or invest during the turbulence time like now, the suggested investment strategies may help you to make profit. This strategy had been suggested during 2008 and early 2009.


My advise will be : get ready to invest and most of the time we won't be able to know the market can go down to which level. What we can control is our investment strategies. But before we move on to investing, it is good to know the following:

1. Know the amount that set aside for investment.

2. Know the potential risk/losses that you willing to take. (worst case scenerio, at least to hold shares for 3 years and still enjoy good dividend yield paid by the company that you choose to invest)

3. Know the number of counters you ready to invest. (also depend on your investment amount)

4. Know the number of quantity in each counters you ready to invest.

5. Use dollar cost averaging method by applying Simple Investment Method (SIM) 1-2-3

Assumption:
1. If economy continue to deteriorating, the equity market may drop up to 20-35%.
2. Whenever economy recover, individual counter tend to rebound 20-50% from the bottom.
3. Invest in Index counters or suggested fundamentally good company with reasonable dividend yield and low gearing .


Let us divide our investment amount into 6 portions:-(1+2+3=6) and only one counter is selected ( Industrial Commercial Bank of China, stock code 1398.hk listed on Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The illustration for investment strategy for SIM 1-2-3 are as follow:-

Highlight:
1. Use your own strategy which you feel more comfortable instead of trying to guess the right timing to enter market.  
2.The above investment strategy allow you to exist either in 1st investment or 2nd investment whenever there is a technical rebound take place and the portfolio is still making money.

Global economy faces a 'perfect storm' in 2013: Roubini

Published on Thu, May 10, 2012 at 10:10 |  Source :

Updated at Thu, May 10, 2012 at 15:01  

Details please refer to :  Perfect Storm in Year 2013

STOP LYNAS!

http://savemalaysia-stoplynas.blogspot.com/

Timecom:-2012年02月28日 - 時光網目標價上修 - 大馬財經 - 即時新聞 - 財經 - 星洲互動

2012年02月28日 - 時光網目標價上修 - 大馬財經 - 即時新聞 - 財經 - 星洲互動

Look at the balance sheet announced by KLSE on 23-2-2012:
1. The capital restructuring basically is to clean up the accumulate losses over the years.
2. The gearing is at very comfortable level.
3. Net asset = RM0.69
4. Good support level at RM0.68 level.

Golden Agri (E5H.SI) : Posted Good Result (Share Price SGD0.75)

Look at the CAGR for past 5 Years:-

Operating at Low Gearing :

Source : GAR WEBSITE

Comments:-
1. Healthy balance sheet with US $8 billion net asset.
2. Low gearing
3. NTA per share @ US $ 0.66 (SGD 0.80)
4. Currently trading at 12.5x PER based on share price SGD0.75
5. If the CAGR can continue for coming years, GAR may record a higher revenue and profit. Target Price :-
    Level 1 - SGD0.77
    Level 2 - SGD 0.85
    Level 3  - SGD 0.93

If anytime the share price weaken to below SGD 0.70 due to weak market sentiment/other external factor, start to accumulate as the strong support level range from SGD 0.57 - SGD 0.65 level.

Good Luck !

 

Oriental privatisation target?

Oriental privatisation target?

Comments: as long as this is a GOOD counter, whether the majorshareholder will take Oriental private, we should not miss this counter.
Therefore, the decision to call for BUY on Oriental during the share price was weaken in November 2011 hit the right time and right price (undervalued) and provide at least 30% upside within 3 months.

China banks' 2011 profits hit new high, growth slows

China banks' 2011 profits hit new high, growth slows

INVEST INDONESIA: BANKING

Revisit CIMB-Niaga Indonesia ( share price Rp1130) - undervalued.   
Target Price Rp1530-Rp1920 ( potential upside of 35%  70% )

Refer to Post dated 24 Oct 2011.

INVEST INDONESIA: BANKING

Indonesia drops plan to lower foreign ownership in banks

Posted on 15 February 2012 - 05:38am

PREMALATHA JAYARAMAN
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

PETALING JAYA (Feb 15, 2012): Malaysian banks with stakes in Indonesian financial institutions no longer need to sell down their holdings as Indonesia is reportedly not going ahead with a plan to limit ownership.
According to a Reuters report yesterday, Indonesia's state deposit agency (LPS) said the country will not implement a planned regulation to limit ownership in domestic banks because it does not want to scare away potential foreign investors from the sale of state-owned Bank Mutiara.
An analyst with a local research firm said the move will stimulate interest in banking stocks with Indonesian exposure like Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) and CIMB Group Holdings Bhd.
"Right now, it is status quo. It is difficult to pre-empt anything yet," she said.
Analysts had previously expressed concern about the Indonesian move to implement the bank ownership cap as it will hurt the Malaysian banks' earnings.
CIMB climbed 15 sen to 7.31 and Maybank added two sen to RM8.52 yesterday.
The move to drop the controversial plan mooted by the central bank last year should give greater certainty to foreign investors looking to buy banking assets in Indonesia and lead to greater consolidation in the sector.
The plan had thrown a spanner in mergers and acquisitions dealmaking in Indonesia's financial sector and led to worries about the need for existing major shareholders to sell their stake to below 50%.
Currently, Indonesia allows foreign banks to own up to 99% of local banks.

Maybank's Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII), which is one of Indonesia's top 10 banks, has 344 branches, almost the same as Maybank's 386 branches in Malaysia.
Maybank holds a 95% stake in BII, which contributes less than 10% to the group's earnings.
CIMB's Indonesian unit, PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk, accounted for about 30% of CIMB Group's pre-tax profit for the first nine months of 2011. CIMB owns a 97% stake in CIMB Niaga.
Both banks had previously said the income from Indonesian operations would continue to grow.
"This is positive for the banks with exposure to Indonesian banks, as well as investors. Previously, investors were trimming their shares as they were worried that ownership cap will impact their future returns and earnings," said an analyst with another broking house.
A banking analyst said the latest development may also re-ignite interest of local financial institutions to buy into Indonesian banks.
According to recent reports, RHB Bank had expressed its intention to acquire an 80% stake in PT Bank Mestika Dharma for RM1.16 billion. And Affin Holdings Bhd may revisit its plan to acquire Indonesia's PT Bank Ina Perdana.

TIMECOM - Target Price RM0.96-RM1.28?

Price started to move and tried RM0.775 level. With the rumours Khazanah (sovereign wealth fund) intend to divest its assets in Time and Timecom, I think the share price may try RM0.86-RM0.96 level soon.

With the 3.54% holding in DiGi, the Timecom share price will be well supported at RM0.72 level. If DIGI continue it uptrend, TIMECOM share price will move also.

Good Luck! 

TIMECOM (Stock Code : 5031)- RM0.71

Background

 5 Years P&L

5 Years Balance Sheet:-

TIMECOM has been going through an effective restructuring since year 2008. Year 2012 will focus in clean-up its Balance Sheet and share consolidation.

Latest Quarterly Result:-

Futures Business In The Pipeline :-

Share Price Movement & Comments:-

GOOD LUCK !

Performance Review For Counters Recommeded

It is time to make a review on some good counters recommended under Traderszone4u:-
Feel free to give any comments/suggestion by sending an email to traderszone4u@yahoo.com.

Invest Malaysia: TDM (stock code:2054)

Background:

Plantation + Health Care = STABLE + SOLID BUSINESS.

5 Years Profit and Loss:-

Profit picking up because of CPO contribution and health-care business.

5 Years Balance Sheet:-

Shareholder funds increase from RM488 million to RM709 million and healthy cash reserve will enable company to further expand into health care business and plantation.

Price Performance:-

Strong support level at RM2.60-RM2.80.

Comments:

1. Healthy balance sheet = net cash position.
2. Strong earning = EPS of 48 sen.
3. Potential acquisition for additional hospital to broader its health care unit and enhance futures earning.
4. NTA = RM3.34.

Target Price = RM3.60 - RM4.00 based on PER of 7x to 8x forward earning.

Invest Malaysia: Oriental Holdings Bhd (stock code: 4006)

Background:

Profit and Loss for Past 5 Years

 See how this company building up its Balance Sheet:-

 Comments: earning translated into cash and gearing is low. Solid shareholder funds.

Price Performance:

Strong support level at RM4.15.

Comments:

•Net Cash per share = RM3.70 ( net borrowing), [Cash Per Share=RM4.18]

•NTA = RM6.92

•Dividend yield = 2%

•Potential bonus issue

•Target Price

               = Level 1 = RM4.75 (potential upside 10%)

               = Level 2 = RM5.00 (potential upside  16 %)

Combs & His Stock Picks

Berkshire Takes Stakes in Visa, Intel as Combs Buys Shares (1) Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. took stakes in CVS Caremark Corp., Intel Corp. and Visa Inc. as investment manager Todd Combs builds his portfolio. Buffett’s firm also had holdings of DirecTV and General Dynamics Corp., the maker of Gulfstream business jets and Abrams tanks, Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire said today in a regulatory filing today listing U.S. equity holdings as of Sept. 30. Berkshire reported an increase in its Dollar General Corp. stake and a decline in its holding of Johnson & Johnson. Buffett and Combs drew down Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire’s cash hoard in the three months ended Sept. 30 as U.S. stocks headed for their biggest quarterly decline since 2008. Buffett, 81, said earlier today that he bought more than $10 billion of stock in International Business Machines Corp. this year, with most of the purchases made in the third quarter. “American companies look very cheap compared to investment alternatives,” Buffett said today in a CNBC interview. Berkshire invested $23.9 billion in the third quarter as Buffett, the chief executive officer, acquired Lubrizol Corp., took a preferred stake in Bank of America Corp. and broadened the stock portfolio. Buffett has accumulated the biggest stakes in Coca-Cola Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. in his more than four decades running Berkshire. Combs, 40, is assembling a group of stock picks of his own after being hired by Berkshire last year to take smaller stakes than Buffett. Berkshire held 5.66 million shares of CVS Caremark Corp., the largest U.S. provider of prescription drugs, valued at $190 million as of Sept. 30. The 2.29 million-share holding of Visa, the world’s biggest payments network, was valued at about $196 million. The stakes in satellite television provider DirecTV, chipmaker Intel and General Dynamics were all valued at between $170 million and $200 million as of Sept. 30, according to the filing. Shares of each of Berkshire’s new holdings have advanced this quarter. To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net

Bloombeeg News: Buffett & IBM

Buffett Buys IBM Near Peak, Echoing Bet on Coke’s Global Growth Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Warren Buffett, who spent more than $10 billion on International Business Machines Corp. stock, paid near-record prices for the shares, recalling his winning 1988 investment in Coca-Cola Co. Berkshire began buying IBM shares this year after Buffett read the Armonk, New York-based company’s annual report and saw the firm “through a different lens,” the billionaire told CNBC today in an interview. IBM had doubled in New York trading in the 27 months prior to the Feb. 22 release of its yearly 10-K filing. Coca-Cola had doubled in the four years through the end of 1987, and has risen more than 10-fold since. “I think he looked at Coke through a different lens back in 1988,” said Jeff Matthews, a Berkshire shareholder and author of “Secrets in Plain Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett.” In IBM, “he sees a business that supports the world’s IT infrastructure and has a lot of room to grow over the next couple decades.” Buffett, 81, acquired IBM shares as the stock’s increase this year prompted at least five analysts to remove their buy recommendations. IBM has risen 28 percent in 2011, the biggest gainer in the 30-company Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is one of six firms in the index whose stock is recommended for purchase by less than half of the research shops that cover it, according to data tracked by Bloomberg. IBM becomes Berkshire’s second-biggest holding behind a stake in Atlanta-based Coca-Cola valued at about $13.5 billion. Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive officer, invested about $1 billion in the world’s biggest soft-drink maker by the end of 1989 and made purchases of almost $300 million in 1994. ‘A Behemoth’ “When he started to accumulate the Coca-Cola stock it was like, ‘Boy, this is very unlike Buffett because of the valuation,’” said David Rolfe, chief investment officer of Berkshire investor Wedgewood Partners Inc. IBM “is a behemoth, compared to even where Coke was back then. But it is certainly a company that can grow.” IBM climbed to a record on Oct. 14. Buffett said he acquired most of the stake in the three months ended Sept. 30. IBM has 16 analyst ratings equivalent to hold, compared with 15 buy recommendations. Coca-Cola, which is also in the Dow, had 17 buy ratings compared with 4 hold calls. IBM is focused on services businesses as it enters its 101st year, and the firm has targeted expansion in Brazil, India and China. Coca-Cola, the world’s biggest soft-drink maker, has boosted per-share earnings eightfold since 1989 by buying back stock and expanding in regions including China and the Pacific. IBM’s Strategy Buffett highlighted IBM’s opportunities to expand outside the U.S. and the company’s track record of executing its strategy. The $220 billion company is targeting operating earnings of at least $20 a share by 2015, from a projection of $13.35 for this year. IBM spent more than $100 billion on dividends and buybacks since 2003. “They are thinking about the shareholders,” Buffett said in the televised CNBC interview. “They treat their stock with reverence, which I find is unusual among big companies.” IBM appointed Virginia “Ginni” Rometty last month as its first female CEO. She takes over from Sam Palmisano, who increased earnings by steering the company toward software and services and disposing of some hardware businesses such as PCs. Buffett drew down Berkshire’s cash and invested $23.9 billion in the third quarter. That included $6.9 billion of equities, $5 billion for preferred shares and warrants in Bank of America Corp. and the acquisition of Lubrizol Corp. for about $9 billion. IBM is trading at about 14 times earnings, compared with Coca-Cola’s 18 times, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The ability to go out there and find distressed investments becomes a lot more difficult when you got to put $10 billion to work,” said Tom Lewandowski, an analyst with Edward Jones & Co. The IBM investment is “a growth play, it’s an emerging-markets play.” To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net . To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net .

Malaysia Automative : Proton

Theedgedaily news: Proton, 1MRT amicably settle “Lotus”, “Team Lotus” issue Written by theedgemalaysia.com Mon Nov 14 2011 18:08:36 GM KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 14): The legal dispute in the English Courts involving Proton Holdings Bhd and 1 Malaysia Racing Team Sdn Bhd (1MRT) with regards to the “Lotus” and “Team Lotus” brands has been amicably settled. In a filing to Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd on Monday, Nov 14, Proton said the parties had agreed to the settlement terms earlier this month. “The terms of the settlement are confidential but the deal sees the "Lotus" brand reunited under the sole ownership of Group Lotus. “This includes the rights to the "Lotus" and "Team Lotus" names in Formula 1 motor racing,” it said. It said 1MRT would race in the 2012 Formula 1 season under the name "Caterham F1 Team" and will use a "Caterham" chassis. “The deal also sees a working relationship established between the parties and they will work together on future projects in the automotive field,” said Proton.

AsiaPac Finance.com : 10 Stocks with Over 100% Upside

Many portfolio managers use back-of-the envelope valuation models to calculate the upside potential or target prices for their investments. One of these methods, heavily used in research reports, Barron’s and other publications is to multiply the 10 yr average trailing P/E with the estimated EPS for next year, to arrive at the target price.

 
Details, please refer to:
http://www.asiapacfinance.com/blog/2011/11/08/10-stocks-with-more-than-100-upside/

Invest Indonesia :Plantation / CPO [Golden Agri:(E5H.SI]

Press Release

Golden Agri-Resources sets another record for its nine-month performance in 2011
· For the first nine months of 2011, EBITDA reached US$761 million and net profit hit US$520 million, with  80% and 105% increases, respectively
· Nine months performance of palm products output and average CPO prices
were at historical high
Singapore, 11 November 2011 - Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (“GAR”) announced its
sterling financial results for the nine-month period ended 30 September 2011 today.
GAR doubled both its year-to-date revenue and net profit compared to the
corresponding period last year, to US$4.63 billion and US$520 million, respectively.

 GAR, the largest palm oil plantation company in Indonesia and the second largest in
the world, achieved year-to-date EBITDA of US$761 million, 80% higher than last
year. Net profit was recorded at US$520 million, more than double last year’s result.
The commendable performance was underpinned by the recovery of palm products
output by 24% year-on-year, as well as stronger CPO FOB prices by 41% year-on year.

Details report please refer to :http://www.goldenagri.com.sg/pdfs/News%20Releases/2011/GAR%203Q2011%20Results%20Press%20Release%20final.pdf


Comments:
The 3Q2011 result is below my estimation. However, the 4Q2011 result should be register net profit between USD 150M - 180 M. The full year EPS will be USD0.058 (SGD 0.0738). Target price :
Level 1 - SGD 0.73
Level 2 - SGD 0.81
Level 3 - SGD 0.85

Good Luck!

Invest Indonesia: Banking

Why Indonesia Banking?

1. Population : 240 million
2. Earning growth rate average at > 20% for its banking sector.
3. Major restructuring to its economy since last financial crisis in year 1998 and currently is supported by its strong domestic consumption.

When you think about China successful economy reform story, Indonesia will be the next country to show the same for coming 10 years. Therefore, for those investors looking at investment in Asian country, do not miss out INDONESIA banking sector.

Good Luck!

KUB ( stock code : 6874)

大馬統一放眼明年營收20億 大馬財經 2011-06-14 19:03 （吉隆坡14日訊）大馬統一（ KUB , 6874, 主板貿服組）獲蜆殼石油（SHELL, 4324, 主板工業產品組）遴選進入最終決選名單，成為液化石油天然氣（LPG）業務潛在得主，一旦獲標，將直接晉升成國內第二大液化天然氣供應商，更放眼明年錄取 20億令吉營業額。 該公司董事經理拿督莫哈末納薩透露，旗下天然氣業務目前在大馬佔有12%市佔率，平均每年貢獻2億8千萬至3億令吉營業額，惟只要成功收購蜆殼石油液化天然氣資產，市佔率將大幅暴增至32%，相關業務營業額也將雙倍走高。（星洲互動） MINISTRY OF FINANCE OWN 23.4% SHAREHOLDING? Interesting counter . WATCH OUT! THIS WILL BE ANOTHER TURNAROUND (AFTER RESTRUCTURING) COMPANY WITH MOF AS SHAREHOLDER SITTING ON BOARD. START TO MAKE PROFIT SINCE YEAR 2008. Assuming net profit margin as RM50 million (net profit margin of 2.5%) with turnover RM2 billion, EPS =RM0.09. Current Price = RM0.69, 10X PER for forward earning, FV = RM0.90, 12X PER for oil gs sector, FV = RM1.08. GOOD LUCK!

China Stocks Cheapest 'I've Ever Seen': Index Pioneer

Chinese stocks are extremely undervalued and U.S. investors should heavily increase their exposure to benefit from the emerging market's long-term growth, says Burton Malkiel, author of the financial classic "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."

.......The economist was referring to a slide showing several valuation metrics—from the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratio—for the AlphaShares family of China indexes he created.
For details, please visit.http://www.cnbc.com/id/45065376

Plantation / CPO: Golden Agri Res (E5H.SI)

CPO price move back to RM3000 level. Therefore, we can see plantation counters to move up in tandem with the CPO price movement.

If the CPO prices can maintain at average RM2950 - RM3,050 level, i believe some of the plantation counters still can make huge profit.

Estimate Golden Agri 2011 EPS= SGD 0.08. Therefore, during negative sentiment, GAR  tend to trade at 7X PER and during good sentiment, its share price may trade up to 10X PER. ( Price range from SGD0.56-SGD0.80). Near term target price @ SGD0.72 based on 9X PER.

Good Luck!

Invest Indonesia Bank : CIMB Niaga (Price : Rp1280)

Updates from Analyst Meeting Presentation 3Q2011 :-
** Declared Rp200 bio interim dividend

IF, 4Q2011 able to deliver another EPS of Rp33, the annulised EPS will be Rp128.
With the annual earning growth rate of at least 25%, we may see 2012 to register EPS of Rp160. Therefore, the target of of Rp1920-Rp2400 is achievable based on 12X-15X PER when sentiment turn good. ( potential upside 50% - 87% )  

Year-end target price based on 12X PER = Rp1530 and 15X PER = Rp 1920 ( potential upside 20% to 50%).


Good Luck !

Plantation / CPO: Golden Agri Resources (E5H.SI)

1. Third quarter result will be released around 2nd week of November. GAR making SGD 0.04 for 1H2011.
2. CPO price has weaken from USD $1050 level to USD $950 level. Hope with the increase in production, GAR able to maintain its quarterly profit level between USD $180 million-USD $200 million (EPS of $0.02)
3. The recent sell down provide very good opportunity for investors / traders to accumulate GAR from SGD 0.63 and below.

China Banking Sector (Part 2): Very Attractive? Cheap Valuation?

( Please refer to Table 1 )
The prices of banking counters from China has been dropping since the peak of Oct 2010 and almost touching March 2009 level. Based on 6-10-2011 prices, most of the banking counters are trading at 5x-7x PER.( cheap valuation when compared to Malaysia banking counters and some other Asia banking counters).

Maybe is time for us to positioning our investment portfolio  in China Banking sector for time horizon of 2 years. Start to accumulate China banks from this level and expecting a investment return of more than 20% p.a
if you hold for time horizon of 2 years.

Assumption is made based on prices rebounded back to 10x PER (reasonable level). During good time,China banking counters tend to trading at the range of 13x-16x PER.

China Banking Sector (Part 1) : Very Attractive? Cheap Valuation ? (Table 1)

Current Price (06-10-2011)	ICBC 3.77	BOC 2.32	CCB 4.70	PFH 2.96	ABC 2.45	BCOMM 4.46
EPS 2007	0.26	0.24	0.32	0.61	-	0.45
EPS 2008	0.37	0.28	0.45	0.33	-	0.65
EPS 2008 (Growth %)*	44%	19%	40%	-46%		45%
EPS 2009	0.43	0.35	0.52	0.25	0.28	0.67
EPS 2009 (Growth %)*	16%	25%	16%	-23%		3%
EPS 2010	0.5672	0.46	0.6617	0.41	0.3899	0.8626
EPS 2010 (Growth %)*	31%	31%	26%	63%	37%	28%
Average EPS Growth Rate	31%	25%	28%	-2%	37%	25%
Dividend Payment (2010)	0.20	0.17	0.24	0.21	0.14	0.24
Dividend Yield	5.4%	7.3%	5.2%	7.1%	5.8%	5.4%
Dividend Payment (2011)	0.22	0.18	0.26	0.05	0.07	0.02
Dividend Yield	5.9%	7.6%	5.4%	1.7%	2.7%	0.5%
52 weeks High	6.90	5.02	8.47	6.25	4.85	9.51
53 weeks Low	4.67	2.88	5.02	3.52	3.22	5.15
Current Price (06-10-2011)	3.77	2.32	4.70	2.96	2.45	4.46
Current PE Ratio	6.65	5.03	7.10	7.22	6.28	5.17
EPS Half of 2011	0.38	0.24	0.37	0.19	0.21	0.43
Expected EPS (2011)	0.76	0.48	0.74	0.38	0.42	0.86
PE ratio (end of 2011)	4.98	4.83	6.35	7.83	5.83	5.19
Expected PE ratio (2011)	10	10	10	10	10	10
Fair Value	7.57	4.80	7.40	3.78	4.20	8.60
Potential Upside	101%	107%	57%	28%	71%	93%
*All figures were converted to HKD from CNY

RHBCAP & OSK MERGER : TARGET PRICE > RM2.00 ?

Compared to previous stockbroking merger cases, the take over price ranging from 0.69x-2.32x (average of 1.2x) of their price to book value.  OSK definitely can command higher price to book value based on following :-

1. With regional present in Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia.
2. Holding commercial banking license in Cambodia- OSK Indochina Bank Limited.
3. Strong Investment Banking background and retail clientele.

Latest book value per share = RM1.57,
Potential upside relatively to the potential merger price that may taken place:-

		Upside
Price to	Valuation	Based on Current Price
Book Value		RM1.60
1.00	1.57	-
1.10	1.73	7.9%
1.20	1.88	17.8%
1.30	2.04	27.6%
1.40	2.20	37.4%
1.50	2.36	47.2%
1.60	2.51	57.0%
1.70	2.67	66.8%
1.80	2.83	76.6%
1.90	2.98	86.4%
2.00	3.14	96.3%
2.10	3.30	106.1%
2.20	3.45	115.9%
2.30	3.61	125.7%

IF merger take place at above 1.5x of the book value, OSK will be valued @ at least RM2.36 and above. Provide minimum  47 % upside during this uncertainty market condition.

IF you are looking for stock that provide minimum downside during this uncertain market, OSK maybe a good choice for you.

GOOD LUCK!