China Stocks Cheapest 'I've Ever Seen': Index Pioneer

Chinese stocks are extremely undervalued and U.S. investors should heavily increase their exposure to benefit from the emerging market's long-term growth, says Burton Malkiel, author of the financial classic "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."

.......The economist was referring to a slide showing several valuation metrics—from the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratio—for the AlphaShares family of China indexes he created.
For details, please visit.http://www.cnbc.com/id/45065376

Plantation / CPO: Golden Agri Res (E5H.SI)

CPO price move back to RM3000 level. Therefore, we can see plantation counters to move up in tandem with the CPO price movement.

If the CPO prices can maintain at average RM2950 - RM3,050 level, i believe some of the plantation counters still can make huge profit.

Estimate Golden Agri 2011 EPS= SGD 0.08. Therefore, during negative sentiment, GAR  tend to trade at 7X PER and during good sentiment, its share price may trade up to 10X PER. ( Price range from SGD0.56-SGD0.80). Near term target price @ SGD0.72 based on 9X PER.

Good Luck!

Invest Indonesia Bank : CIMB Niaga (Price : Rp1280)

Updates from Analyst Meeting Presentation 3Q2011 :-
** Declared Rp200 bio interim dividend

IF, 4Q2011 able to deliver another EPS of Rp33, the annulised EPS will be Rp128.
With the annual earning growth rate of at least 25%, we may see 2012 to register EPS of Rp160. Therefore, the target of of Rp1920-Rp2400 is achievable based on 12X-15X PER when sentiment turn good. ( potential upside 50% - 87% )  

Year-end target price based on 12X PER = Rp1530 and 15X PER = Rp 1920 ( potential upside 20% to 50%).


Good Luck !

Plantation / CPO: Golden Agri Resources (E5H.SI)

1. Third quarter result will be released around 2nd week of November. GAR making SGD 0.04 for 1H2011.
2. CPO price has weaken from USD $1050 level to USD $950 level. Hope with the increase in production, GAR able to maintain its quarterly profit level between USD $180 million-USD $200 million (EPS of $0.02)
3. The recent sell down provide very good opportunity for investors / traders to accumulate GAR from SGD 0.63 and below.

China Banking Sector (Part 2): Very Attractive? Cheap Valuation?

( Please refer to Table 1 )
The prices of banking counters from China has been dropping since the peak of Oct 2010 and almost touching March 2009 level. Based on 6-10-2011 prices, most of the banking counters are trading at 5x-7x PER.( cheap valuation when compared to Malaysia banking counters and some other Asia banking counters).

Maybe is time for us to positioning our investment portfolio  in China Banking sector for time horizon of 2 years. Start to accumulate China banks from this level and expecting a investment return of more than 20% p.a
if you hold for time horizon of 2 years.

Assumption is made based on prices rebounded back to 10x PER (reasonable level). During good time,China banking counters tend to trading at the range of 13x-16x PER.

China Banking Sector (Part 1) : Very Attractive? Cheap Valuation ? (Table 1)

Current Price (06-10-2011)	ICBC 3.77	BOC 2.32	CCB 4.70	PFH 2.96	ABC 2.45	BCOMM 4.46
EPS 2007	0.26	0.24	0.32	0.61	-	0.45
EPS 2008	0.37	0.28	0.45	0.33	-	0.65
EPS 2008 (Growth %)*	44%	19%	40%	-46%		45%
EPS 2009	0.43	0.35	0.52	0.25	0.28	0.67
EPS 2009 (Growth %)*	16%	25%	16%	-23%		3%
EPS 2010	0.5672	0.46	0.6617	0.41	0.3899	0.8626
EPS 2010 (Growth %)*	31%	31%	26%	63%	37%	28%
Average EPS Growth Rate	31%	25%	28%	-2%	37%	25%
Dividend Payment (2010)	0.20	0.17	0.24	0.21	0.14	0.24
Dividend Yield	5.4%	7.3%	5.2%	7.1%	5.8%	5.4%
Dividend Payment (2011)	0.22	0.18	0.26	0.05	0.07	0.02
Dividend Yield	5.9%	7.6%	5.4%	1.7%	2.7%	0.5%
52 weeks High	6.90	5.02	8.47	6.25	4.85	9.51
53 weeks Low	4.67	2.88	5.02	3.52	3.22	5.15
Current Price (06-10-2011)	3.77	2.32	4.70	2.96	2.45	4.46
Current PE Ratio	6.65	5.03	7.10	7.22	6.28	5.17
EPS Half of 2011	0.38	0.24	0.37	0.19	0.21	0.43
Expected EPS (2011)	0.76	0.48	0.74	0.38	0.42	0.86
PE ratio (end of 2011)	4.98	4.83	6.35	7.83	5.83	5.19
Expected PE ratio (2011)	10	10	10	10	10	10
Fair Value	7.57	4.80	7.40	3.78	4.20	8.60
Potential Upside	101%	107%	57%	28%	71%	93%
*All figures were converted to HKD from CNY

RHBCAP & OSK MERGER : TARGET PRICE > RM2.00 ?

Compared to previous stockbroking merger cases, the take over price ranging from 0.69x-2.32x (average of 1.2x) of their price to book value.  OSK definitely can command higher price to book value based on following :-

1. With regional present in Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia.
2. Holding commercial banking license in Cambodia- OSK Indochina Bank Limited.
3. Strong Investment Banking background and retail clientele.

Latest book value per share = RM1.57,
Potential upside relatively to the potential merger price that may taken place:-

		Upside
Price to	Valuation	Based on Current Price
Book Value		RM1.60
1.00	1.57	-
1.10	1.73	7.9%
1.20	1.88	17.8%
1.30	2.04	27.6%
1.40	2.20	37.4%
1.50	2.36	47.2%
1.60	2.51	57.0%
1.70	2.67	66.8%
1.80	2.83	76.6%
1.90	2.98	86.4%
2.00	3.14	96.3%
2.10	3.30	106.1%
2.20	3.45	115.9%
2.30	3.61	125.7%

IF merger take place at above 1.5x of the book value, OSK will be valued @ at least RM2.36 and above. Provide minimum  47 % upside during this uncertainty market condition.

IF you are looking for stock that provide minimum downside during this uncertain market, OSK maybe a good choice for you.

GOOD LUCK!

Merger between RHBCAP and OSK .Target price OSK RM2.00?

THEEDGE DAILY : RHBCAP and OSK merger, apply to BNM for principle approval.

Buy OSK.

PLANTATION SECTOR : GOLDEN AGRI (E5HSI)

Golden Agri share price SGD0.63. GOOD BUY.

Trading Strategic For Golden Agri:

1. Buy when share price range from SGD0.63 and below.
2. If Crude Palm Oil price rebounded and its share price bounce back to SGD0.68 or above, CASH OUT and make > 7 % return .

HAPPY TRADING.

Get Ready To Enter Market !

It's time to identify some good stock to accumulate whenever the market adjust downward. Get ready your cash and apply SIM 1-2-3 investment approach. I have identified 5 stocks with following assumptions:

1. Adjusted EPS (-10%) based on bleak economic outlook for coming months.
2. Stocks with solid earning capacity and ability to pay consistent dividend.
3. Execute the investment plan with suggested entry points (total 3 entry points).


Suggested Malaysia stock with -10% adjusted EPS :-

Stock	Industry	EPS	Adj EPS	DPS	Payout Ratio	Current Price	DY
			-10%			23-9-2011
AEONCR	Consumer	0.7086	0.638	0.32	50%	4.70	6.78%
NCB	Logistic	0.234	0.211	0.21	100%	3.70	5.69%
TDM	Plantation	0.528	0.475	0.19	40%	2.82	6.74%
KFIMA	Plantation	0.328	0.295	0.09	30%	1.57	5.64%
AFFIN	Banking	0.322	0.289	0.09	31%	2.36	3.82%

Valuation and Suggested Entry Points :-

Stock	PER	FAIR PER	FAIR VALUE	ENTRY LEVEL
				Level 1	Level 2	Level 3
AEONCR	7.37	8.00	5.10	4.15	3.83	3.51
NCB	17.57	12.00	2.53	3.37	3.16	2.95
TDM	5.93	7.00	3.33	2.61	2.38	2.14
KFIMA	5.32	7.00	2.07	1.48	1.33	1.18
AFFIN	8.15	10.00	2.89	2.17	1.88	1.59

Counters To Put Under Your Watch List:-

1. AEONCR
-Consumer based and owned by Japanese
- expected EPS of at least 70 cts and dividend of 30 cts-40 cts .
-Price = RM4.70
- Accumulate when share price below RM4.50

2. NCB
- Port operator and owned by Permodalan Nasional Berhad (government linked)
- Consistent dividend payout. 25 cts-30 cte per annum
- Net gearing.
- Accumulate when share price drop below RM 3.50

Golden Agri ( E5H.SI )- SGD 0.64

During market uncertainty and volatile like now, it would be good to identify company that is fundamentally strong and can provide opportunity to make money. TRY Golden Agri:

Background:-

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd ("GAR") is the world's second largest palm oil plantation company with a total planted area of 446,200 hectares (including smallholders) as at 30 June 2011, located in Indonesia. It has integrated operations focused on the production of palm-based edible oil and fat.

Founded in 1996, GAR is listed on the Singapore Exchange since 1999 with a market capitalisation of US$6.7 billion as at 30 June 2011. Flambo International Ltd, an investment company, is GAR's largest shareholder, with a 50% stake. GAR has several subsidiaries, including PT SMART Tbk wich is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange since 1992.

GAR is focused on sustainable palm oil production. In Indonesia, its primary activities include cultivating and harvesting of oil palm trees; processing of fresh fruit bunch into crude palm oil ("CPO") and palm kernel; and refining CPO into value-added products such as cooking oil, margarine and shortening. It also has integrated operations in China including a deep-sea port, oilseeds crushing plants, production capabilities for refined edible oil products as well as other food products such as noodles.

Key Numbers

USD (Currency in Millions)

Income Statement
Total Revenue			$3504.66
Gross Profit			$954.59
Total Operating Expense			$1593.69
Operating Income			$1910.97
Net Income before taxes			$1929.18
Net Income after taxes			$1447.15
Net Profit Margin			41.29%
Balance Sheet
Total Assets			$10114.45
Current Assets			$1491.91
Total Liabilities			$3288.59
Current Liabilities			$1060.90
Long Term Debt			$443.64
Total Debt			$984.35
Total Equity			$6825.86
Cash Flows
Cash from Operating Activities			$167.41
Cash from Investing Activities			$(469.79)
Cash from Financing Activities			$184.37
Net Change in Cash			$(118.00)

Total Revenue (Millions)	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	12 months
2011	$1463.03	$1600.51	NA	NA	NA
2010	NA	$726.22	$964.74	$1189.16	$3504.66

Net Income (Millions)	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	12 months
2011	$230.70	$179.86	NA	NA	NA
2010	NA	$66.05	$99.17	$1169.30	$1423.04

Listed on SGX and quoted in SGD. Conversion 1 USD = SGD 1.208

1. EPS = SGD 0.08
2. Healthy Balance Sheet
3. Improved net profit and sustainable.

Accumulate if share price range from 0.64 - 0.56.

PER ===Share Price (SGD)
10 ===0.80
9 ===0.72
8 === 0.64
7 ===0.56
6 === 0.48

Golden Agri share is actively trading on SGX, therefore this counter able to provide trading opportunity for those looking for 5%-10% investment return.

KULIM (Stock Code 2003): RM3.78

Price maintain well at RM3.50-3.80 level ( trading at PER11x).
May start to accumulate if share price drop below RM3.50.

GOOD LUCK!

Counters That Can Try Your Luck.!

1. BIMB - TP = RM2.30 - RM2.45
2. PCHEM - TP= RM6.80-RM7.00
3. TDM - TP = RM3.20-RM3.30
4. AFFIN - TP = RM3.30 -RM3.50

Storm To Wipe Off The Shares Market ?

Opportunity to accumulate when panic selling happened in the market.

Strategies:
1. Identify fundamentally sound and low gearing companies. (e.g blue-chip )
2. Apply 3 ROUNDS dollar cost averaging method to accumulate companies identified in step 1.
(Only average when share price drop 10%-15%)
3. Buy companies with good dividend payout records and holding a lot of cash in hand.

TDM ( stock code:2054) - share price RM3.18

Share price moving steadily since last call on 19-7-2011 (RM3.05).
Buy before you will regret to miss another good stuff that can provide potential return of atleast 10% and above during market with a lot uncertainty like now.

Refer to post dated on 19-7-2011 for some information that can help you to make investment decision.

THPLANT (5112) SHARE PRICE -RM2.10

TH Plantation posts higher Q2 pre-tax profit

TH Plantations Bhd (THP) pre-tax profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 surged to RM54.24 million from RM12.54 million in the same period last year.

Revenue jumped to RM112.71 million from RM76 million previously due to higher commodity prices for crude palm oil, palm kernel and fresh fruit bunches, it said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia today.

For the six-month period ended June 30, 2011, pre-tax profit rose to RM84.91 million from RM39.74 million in the same period last year. Revenue increased to RM187.76 million from RM153.21 million previously.

"This (higher profit) was also mainly due to higher commodity prices and higher gross profit margin," it said.

THP said notwithstanding the volatility of the commodity prices, the company was optimistic of sustaining its current satisfactory performance. -- Bernama

Read more: TH Plantation posts higher Q2 pre-tax profit http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20110721203951/Article/index_html#ixzz1Skt2XN24

_________________________________________________________________

The estimated 2011 EPS = 26 sen.
Based on PER 10x = RM2.60. PER 12x = RM3.12

ACCUMULATE AT THIS LEVEL. POTENTIAL UPSIDE OF 23%-47%. For those investor looking for min investment return of 20% can consider THPLANT.

GOOD LUCK!