1. Get ready ... look for counters that can provide 10-30% return for next 1 month?
2. Divide your fund into 2 :-
FIRST round from 30-11 to 4-12
SECOND round from 7-12 to 11-12
3. Then ...wait for rebound.
4. Counters :-
Gpacket below 0.95
Gpacket-wa below 0.45
Maybank-CM below 0.10
Connect below 0.04
APB below 1.15
PJD -WB below 0.11
Good Luck.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
ConnectCOUNTY: stock code 0102
0102...nice number.
NTA : RM0.04
Borrowing: RM1.1 million
Quoted from interim financial statement dated 30-9-2009
There is no outstanding uncompleted corporate proposal as at the date of this quarterly report. Notwithstanding, as a result of its GN3 status premised on the regulation as per the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad ("Bursa Securities") ACE Market Listing Requirements ("ACE LR"), the Group is required to submit a proposal to regularise its financial position by 25 October 2009.
The Company had on 7 October 2009 submitted an application to Bursa Securities for the following:
(a) to adopt the new regime under the ACE LR in respect of the requirements which are to be complied by an affected listed company;
(b) extension of time for CCHB to appoint a Sponsor in accordance with Paragraph 8.04(3) of the ACE LR; and
(c) extension of time for CCHB to submit a regularisation plan to Bursa Securities in accordance with Paragraph 8.04(3) and GN3 of the ACE LR.
(collectively referred to as the “Application”)
Bursa Securities had vide its letter dated 22 October 2009 approved the Application subject to the following conditions:
(a) CCHB to appoint a Sponsor and make the relevant announcement by 30 November 2009; and
(b) CCHB to submit the regularisation plan to the relevant authorities (“the Approving Authorities”) by 25 February 2010.
The Company is currently in the midst of discussion with potential principal advisers for the appointment to be its Sponsor and will make further announcements on any material developments in respect of the appointment of a Sponsor in due course.
Now trading at 0.035-0.04 level, picking up from 0.02 level. ( provide 75% return).
Trading strategic for PN 17 counter:
1. If you make some profit from recent trades i.e. RM2K or 3K, you may try this counter.
2. Worst case scenario: you may be able to sell at 0.015-0.02.
3. if we are lucky, may be the share price can try 0.05-0.08 level ( 42% to >100% return)
NTA : RM0.04
Borrowing: RM1.1 million
Quoted from interim financial statement dated 30-9-2009
There is no outstanding uncompleted corporate proposal as at the date of this quarterly report. Notwithstanding, as a result of its GN3 status premised on the regulation as per the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad ("Bursa Securities") ACE Market Listing Requirements ("ACE LR"), the Group is required to submit a proposal to regularise its financial position by 25 October 2009.
The Company had on 7 October 2009 submitted an application to Bursa Securities for the following:
(a) to adopt the new regime under the ACE LR in respect of the requirements which are to be complied by an affected listed company;
(b) extension of time for CCHB to appoint a Sponsor in accordance with Paragraph 8.04(3) of the ACE LR; and
(c) extension of time for CCHB to submit a regularisation plan to Bursa Securities in accordance with Paragraph 8.04(3) and GN3 of the ACE LR.
(collectively referred to as the “Application”)
Bursa Securities had vide its letter dated 22 October 2009 approved the Application subject to the following conditions:
(a) CCHB to appoint a Sponsor and make the relevant announcement by 30 November 2009; and
(b) CCHB to submit the regularisation plan to the relevant authorities (“the Approving Authorities”) by 25 February 2010.
The Company is currently in the midst of discussion with potential principal advisers for the appointment to be its Sponsor and will make further announcements on any material developments in respect of the appointment of a Sponsor in due course.
Now trading at 0.035-0.04 level, picking up from 0.02 level. ( provide 75% return).
Trading strategic for PN 17 counter:
1. If you make some profit from recent trades i.e. RM2K or 3K, you may try this counter.
2. Worst case scenario: you may be able to sell at 0.015-0.02.
3. if we are lucky, may be the share price can try 0.05-0.08 level ( 42% to >100% return)
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Affin..still not too late....
If share price able to maintain at 2.30-2.40. Start to accumulate.
Suitable for short term and mid term investment:
1. When economy is recovering and interest rate tend to be adjusted upward slowly by next year.
2. Earning increase for banking sector.
Still not too late to look at this counter.
Suitable for short term and mid term investment:
1. When economy is recovering and interest rate tend to be adjusted upward slowly by next year.
2. Earning increase for banking sector.
Still not too late to look at this counter.
CPO hold firmly at above 2300 level And Golden Agri
Recap on comment dated : Monday, October 26, 2009
CPO..stable because of weak USD
CPO price will be stable at above RM2180 as long as USD is weakening and picking up in exports figures. The export figures from 1-25 Oct 09 vs 1-25 Sept 09:ITS (+16%) and SGS (+6%).My notes dated 8-9-2009 on CPO already highlighted that US will adopt a weak currecy policy in order to boost its exports. This scenerio will continue for at least for the next 3 quarter until US government feel its economy is stabalised. The next indicator to watch out should be US interest rate. A weak currency will continue and will start to strengthen when US increase its interest rate.Short term startegy:1. If CPO break above 2240 level, next target should be 2285 before reach 2338.2. If CPO break below 2200 level, next target will be 2179 >> 2125Therefore, if CPO price down to 2100 or even lower, it would be safe to LONG for Jan2010 / Feb 2010 contract.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today CPO closed at Feb Contract: 2400 level
I believe any downward adjustment will be temporarily and it will trending upward to 2500 level toward Feb 2010.
Therefore, opportunity to invest in plantation counters for the next 3 months may provide 10-30% return. Top pick : Golden Agri (Indonesia company listed at Singapore SGD0.46)
Why?
1.) exposure to plantation sector since earning is picking up compare to early of this year
2.) riding on Singapore Dollar appreciation ( if you believe)
Golden Agri being the 2nd largest landbank plantation company in the world is doing well and continue to grow. Low gearing and having a good distribution channel in China.
Level 1 : SGD $0.50
Level 2 : SGD $0.55
Level 3 : SGD $0.60
20-30% potential return. Good Try!
CPO..stable because of weak USD
CPO price will be stable at above RM2180 as long as USD is weakening and picking up in exports figures. The export figures from 1-25 Oct 09 vs 1-25 Sept 09:ITS (+16%) and SGS (+6%).My notes dated 8-9-2009 on CPO already highlighted that US will adopt a weak currecy policy in order to boost its exports. This scenerio will continue for at least for the next 3 quarter until US government feel its economy is stabalised. The next indicator to watch out should be US interest rate. A weak currency will continue and will start to strengthen when US increase its interest rate.Short term startegy:1. If CPO break above 2240 level, next target should be 2285 before reach 2338.2. If CPO break below 2200 level, next target will be 2179 >> 2125Therefore, if CPO price down to 2100 or even lower, it would be safe to LONG for Jan2010 / Feb 2010 contract.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today CPO closed at Feb Contract: 2400 level
I believe any downward adjustment will be temporarily and it will trending upward to 2500 level toward Feb 2010.
Therefore, opportunity to invest in plantation counters for the next 3 months may provide 10-30% return. Top pick : Golden Agri (Indonesia company listed at Singapore SGD0.46)
Why?
1.) exposure to plantation sector since earning is picking up compare to early of this year
2.) riding on Singapore Dollar appreciation ( if you believe)
Golden Agri being the 2nd largest landbank plantation company in the world is doing well and continue to grow. Low gearing and having a good distribution channel in China.
Level 1 : SGD $0.50
Level 2 : SGD $0.55
Level 3 : SGD $0.60
20-30% potential return. Good Try!
Monday, November 16, 2009
PJ Development..Strat to move
Today volume increase and closed at RM0.735.
The listing of its subsidiary should add more good news to PJ Dev and help to unlock its value.
Level 1 - RM0.78
Level 2 - RM0.82
Level 3 - RM0.99
From now until listing of its subsidiary- by 1Q2010....almost 3 months, provide potential return of approximately 30%.
The listing of its subsidiary should add more good news to PJ Dev and help to unlock its value.
Level 1 - RM0.78
Level 2 - RM0.82
Level 3 - RM0.99
From now until listing of its subsidiary- by 1Q2010....almost 3 months, provide potential return of approximately 30%.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
AFFIN
Finally newspaper published: rumour saying Hong Leong Bank merge with Affin Bank..Whether the merger news reliable or not, the salient point is that Affin being the cheapest banking counter worth to consider especially most of the banking counter already moving up.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Efficien:0064..WHY Invest through Asset Management?
In order to maximise the return for idle cash sitting in bank account, the management should use their expertise to find a viable investment option to generate more profit for the company instead of parking money with fund manager.
RM8 million parking with fund manager? ...If lucky, RM8 million make 10-20% return. IF NOT LUCKY..????
As a listing corporation, try to avoid any investment with uncertainty. The other option for using the cash is to pay out as dividend and make the shareholder happy.
RM8 million parking with fund manager? ...If lucky, RM8 million make 10-20% return. IF NOT LUCKY..????
As a listing corporation, try to avoid any investment with uncertainty. The other option for using the cash is to pay out as dividend and make the shareholder happy.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
APB...still can consider
For defensive investor, this will be the good counter to invest.
Consistently payout dividend of 10 cents (dividend yield of 8% based on share price RM1.20, better than FD rate). Good management team and healthy balance sheet.
4Q2009 financial result will be released soon by end of November.
Consistently payout dividend of 10 cents (dividend yield of 8% based on share price RM1.20, better than FD rate). Good management team and healthy balance sheet.
4Q2009 financial result will be released soon by end of November.
Affin Bank..the laggard Banking Counter
Recap on comment dated: Friday, September 11, 2009
Topic: Stock Watch: Affin Bank .Why?
1. Strong shareholders- LTAT, Boustead and Bank of East Asia (HK)
2. Public spread - major shareholders hold most of the shares and easy to "push" when any annoucement is made.
3. PE - low PE (8X based on RM1.93), industry PE is 14X for 1st tier bank. IF, given PE of 10X, price may move to RM2.40. PE 12X, target price RM2.88
Any Risk?
Strong shareholder back-up. Don't worry.
If you are looking at 14-20% return within 3 months...Good TRY
Recap on comment dated : Tuesday, October 13, 2009 AFFIN BANK...
Don't forget this counter. Potential move to RM2.40 if break
1 level: RM2.10
2 level: RM2.25
PE for FY2010 = less than 10x...suitable for defensive investors with target return of 10% within 3 months.
Current share performance
The share price moving up slowly and good support at RM2.10 level. The next target will be RM2.25--RM2.50 --R2.80.
Bank of East Asia continue to increase its stake in Affin Bank through open market.
Topic: Stock Watch: Affin Bank .Why?
1. Strong shareholders- LTAT, Boustead and Bank of East Asia (HK)
2. Public spread - major shareholders hold most of the shares and easy to "push" when any annoucement is made.
3. PE - low PE (8X based on RM1.93), industry PE is 14X for 1st tier bank. IF, given PE of 10X, price may move to RM2.40. PE 12X, target price RM2.88
Any Risk?
Strong shareholder back-up. Don't worry.
If you are looking at 14-20% return within 3 months...Good TRY
Recap on comment dated : Tuesday, October 13, 2009 AFFIN BANK...
Don't forget this counter. Potential move to RM2.40 if break
1 level: RM2.10
2 level: RM2.25
PE for FY2010 = less than 10x...suitable for defensive investors with target return of 10% within 3 months.
Current share performance
The share price moving up slowly and good support at RM2.10 level. The next target will be RM2.25--RM2.50 --R2.80.
Bank of East Asia continue to increase its stake in Affin Bank through open market.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Salcon - (Stock Code 8567)
Prospect:
With a stronger order book in construction and improved profit contributions from China concessions,the Group is confident that the current financial year’s performance will improve barring any unforeseen circumstances. The Group continues to expand its core businesses overseas and had set up an office in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in April 2009 and is setting up an office in Hyderabad, India, to tap into the vast construction projects for water and wastewater in these two highly populated countries.
NTA = RM0.65 as at 30-6-2009
Financial position = OK
Support level 1: RM0.510
Support level 2: RM0.560
Resistance level 1:RM0.610
Resistance level 2:RM0.650
Consolidate at RM0.510-0.550 level. Good buy at RM0.55-RM0.58 level.
Any breakout at RM0.620 level will see the share price try RM0.68, then RM0.75.
Hope the 3Q financial result can show good improvement then we can expect the share price moving up.
Good Luck!
With a stronger order book in construction and improved profit contributions from China concessions,the Group is confident that the current financial year’s performance will improve barring any unforeseen circumstances. The Group continues to expand its core businesses overseas and had set up an office in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in April 2009 and is setting up an office in Hyderabad, India, to tap into the vast construction projects for water and wastewater in these two highly populated countries.
NTA = RM0.65 as at 30-6-2009
Financial position = OK
Support level 1: RM0.510
Support level 2: RM0.560
Resistance level 1:RM0.610
Resistance level 2:RM0.650
Consolidate at RM0.510-0.550 level. Good buy at RM0.55-RM0.58 level.
Any breakout at RM0.620 level will see the share price try RM0.68, then RM0.75.
Hope the 3Q financial result can show good improvement then we can expect the share price moving up.
Good Luck!
Monday, October 26, 2009
PJ Development..Propose Listing OCC CABLES BERHAD
RATIONALE FOR THE PROPOSED LISTING (quoted from annoucement made in Bursa website)
The main purposes of the Proposed Listing are as follows:-
(a) To enable OCB to raise funds from the capital market to finance the business activities
and expansion plans of the Group. Being accorded listing status will allow OCB Group
greater financial flexibility when pursuing its growth plans;
(b) To enable PJD Group to unlock the value of its investments;
(c) To provide an opportunity for the investing community, including the Malaysian public,shareholders of PJD and eligible Directors, employees and persons who have
contributed to the success of the OCB Group to participate directly in OCB’s equity and continuing growth; and
(d) To enable OCB to gain recognition and corporate stature through its listing status.
PJD today closed at RM0.675. If able to break RM0.75, maybe can go up to RM0.80
NTA = RM1.70
EPS = RM0.06 (estimated for FY2010)
Dividend = RM0.05 (dividend yield 7%)
The main purposes of the Proposed Listing are as follows:-
(a) To enable OCB to raise funds from the capital market to finance the business activities
and expansion plans of the Group. Being accorded listing status will allow OCB Group
greater financial flexibility when pursuing its growth plans;
(b) To enable PJD Group to unlock the value of its investments;
(c) To provide an opportunity for the investing community, including the Malaysian public,shareholders of PJD and eligible Directors, employees and persons who have
contributed to the success of the OCB Group to participate directly in OCB’s equity and continuing growth; and
(d) To enable OCB to gain recognition and corporate stature through its listing status.
PJD today closed at RM0.675. If able to break RM0.75, maybe can go up to RM0.80
NTA = RM1.70
EPS = RM0.06 (estimated for FY2010)
Dividend = RM0.05 (dividend yield 7%)
CPO..stable because of weak USD
CPO price will be stable at above RM2180 as long as USD is weakening and picking up in exports figures.
The export figures from 1-25 Oct 09 vs 1-25 Sept 09:ITS (+16%) and SGS (+6%).
My notes dated 8-9-2009 on CPO already highlighted that US will adopt a weak currecy policy in order to boost its exports. This scenerio will continue for at least for the next 3 quarter until US government feel its economy is stabalised.
The next indicator to watch out should be US interest rate. A weak currency will continue and will start to strengthen when US increase its interest rate.
Short term startegy:
1. If CPO break above 2240 level, next target should be 2285 before reach 2338.
2. If CPO break below 2200 level, next target will be 2179 >> 2125
Therefore, if CPO price down to 2100 or even lower, it would be safe to LONG for Jan2010 / Feb 2010 contract.
The export figures from 1-25 Oct 09 vs 1-25 Sept 09:ITS (+16%) and SGS (+6%).
My notes dated 8-9-2009 on CPO already highlighted that US will adopt a weak currecy policy in order to boost its exports. This scenerio will continue for at least for the next 3 quarter until US government feel its economy is stabalised.
The next indicator to watch out should be US interest rate. A weak currency will continue and will start to strengthen when US increase its interest rate.
Short term startegy:
1. If CPO break above 2240 level, next target should be 2285 before reach 2338.
2. If CPO break below 2200 level, next target will be 2179 >> 2125
Therefore, if CPO price down to 2100 or even lower, it would be safe to LONG for Jan2010 / Feb 2010 contract.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Efficen: (Stock Code: 0064 )
1. Healthly balance sheet
2. EPS appro. 3 cents and PE for FY2010 7x-8x
3. Cash per share around RM0.047.
If able to break RM0.25 level, next target should be RM0.30.
2. EPS appro. 3 cents and PE for FY2010 7x-8x
3. Cash per share around RM0.047.
If able to break RM0.25 level, next target should be RM0.30.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
AFFIN BANK...
Don't forget this counter. Potential move to RM2.40 if break
1 level: RM2.10
2 level: RM2.25
PE for FY2010 = less than 10x...suitable for defensive investors with target return of 10% within 3 months.
1 level: RM2.10
2 level: RM2.25
PE for FY2010 = less than 10x...suitable for defensive investors with target return of 10% within 3 months.
NOTION VTEC-0083
Still remember my views on 2-10-09:
1. Company consistently making profit.
2. Healthy balance sheet.
3. Accumulation started at 35 - 37 cents level.
4. Breakout at RM0.385 level on 24/9 and close at 41.5 cents.
5. Stable again at 41-43 cents level.Comments:
No harm to try this counter and wait for 50 cents first target.
The share price stable at RM0.465 level for few days and today finally break RM0.50.
NEXT: TRY FOR RM0.54 BEFORE TEST RM0.60 LEVEL
Happy trading
1. Company consistently making profit.
2. Healthy balance sheet.
3. Accumulation started at 35 - 37 cents level.
4. Breakout at RM0.385 level on 24/9 and close at 41.5 cents.
5. Stable again at 41-43 cents level.Comments:
No harm to try this counter and wait for 50 cents first target.
The share price stable at RM0.465 level for few days and today finally break RM0.50.
NEXT: TRY FOR RM0.54 BEFORE TEST RM0.60 LEVEL
Happy trading
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
TIME.....time to move?
Volume increase from daily average2K lots to 22K lots (half-day).
First level RM0.33-0.35
Second level RM0.40
Third level ---- ?
Alternate choice to TIME ( PN17 counter) is TIMECOM.
GOOD LUCK!
First level RM0.33-0.35
Second level RM0.40
Third level ---- ?
Alternate choice to TIME ( PN17 counter) is TIMECOM.
GOOD LUCK!
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
APB-Resources Bhd
After the selling off on 30/9 @ RM0.975, some buying support at RM1.00 level and share price touch RM1.05 today. If this level able to maintain and pending for coming announcement on financial result, any breakout at RM1.10 level will see the share price to move RM1.20-RM1.30.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Affin Bank
Bank of East Asia increase its stake in Affin Bank through open market. From Bursa record, the transaction should be done at RM1.95-RM1.92 level.
Friday, October 2, 2009
NOTION VTEC BHD
Company background (Main Board: Stock Code 0083)
A high precision engineering specialist. Notion VTec is one of biggest high precision engineering specialists in Malaysia with 2 manufacturing plants in Klang, Selangor, which it has expanded a few times since its IPO in 2005.
OSK Research give target price RM0.585.
My views:
1. Company consistently making profit.
2. Healthy balance sheet.
3. Accumulation started at 35 - 37 cents level.
4. Breakout at RM0.385 level on 24/9 and close at 41.5 cents.
5. Stable again at 41-43 cents level.
Comments: No harm to try this counter and wait for 50 cents first target.
A high precision engineering specialist. Notion VTec is one of biggest high precision engineering specialists in Malaysia with 2 manufacturing plants in Klang, Selangor, which it has expanded a few times since its IPO in 2005.
OSK Research give target price RM0.585.
My views:
1. Company consistently making profit.
2. Healthy balance sheet.
3. Accumulation started at 35 - 37 cents level.
4. Breakout at RM0.385 level on 24/9 and close at 41.5 cents.
5. Stable again at 41-43 cents level.
Comments: No harm to try this counter and wait for 50 cents first target.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
APB..opportunity to accumulate
Some selling pressure on 30-9-2009 and provide opportunity to accumulate this counter.
The price stable at RM0.975 on 1-10-2009.
Start to accumulate.
The price stable at RM0.975 on 1-10-2009.
Start to accumulate.
CPO..tight range BUT something is going on.
The open interest for December 2009 contract hit 34,625 contracts indicates that a very strong accumulation for CPO contract. The movement for coming weeks will be volatile when all this contracts going to close-off. Therefore, there will be a big swing in CPO price if certain news is announced. Belows are the possibilities that may happen:
1. Sales of Sime Darby10% equity to China government-CPO price to move up to 2,300 /2,400
2. Inventory level increase substantially and demand for CPO drop drastically- CPO price drop below 2,000 level.
3. Demand for CPO increase and Sept inventory level below 1.41 million tonnes- CPO price move up to 2,200/2,250 level.
Cautious trading for CPO. Good luck!
1. Sales of Sime Darby10% equity to China government-CPO price to move up to 2,300 /2,400
2. Inventory level increase substantially and demand for CPO drop drastically- CPO price drop below 2,000 level.
3. Demand for CPO increase and Sept inventory level below 1.41 million tonnes- CPO price move up to 2,200/2,250 level.
Cautious trading for CPO. Good luck!
Monday, September 28, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Automative Industry
The recent run up of some automotive counters trigger some market interest especially the "taiko" -PROTON moved from RM2.9 to RM4.50. After screening through some of the companies, belows are my selection for those interested in automotive counters:
1. SUNCRN
2. DELLOYD
3. NHFATT
4. APM
1. SUNCRN
2. DELLOYD
3. NHFATT
4. APM
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Warrants.
Warrant Expiry Date Exercise Price Closing (23/9) Underlying Share
BRDB-WA 26/09/2012 RM1.10 RM0.605 RM1.69
TGOFFS-WA 07/04/2016 RM0.55 RM0.860 RM1.29
RAMUNIA-WA 19/12/2014 RM0.51 RM0.260 RM0.49
My basis of considerations:
1. Expiry date : more than 3 years.
2. Underlying share : BRDB and TGOFFS posted profit for the past three years. As for Ramuinia, I believe the SIME-Ramunia "story" still intact.
3. Trading at low premium after conversion except Ramunia-wa.
4. From now till the next 3 years, I think there will be atleast a few rounds of uptrend for our KLSE.
5. Do not put all your money in these counters. My advice will be 10-20% of your fund for this kind of risky counter or use whatever gain from previous investment to try your "luck".
Abritraging opportunity:
Ramunia-PA (20/12/2009), PA trading at RM0.43, conversion 1:1, Underlying RM0.49 ( provide 13% potential return for 3 months), provided RAMUNIA share price hold RM0.49 and above.
BRDB-WA 26/09/2012 RM1.10 RM0.605 RM1.69
TGOFFS-WA 07/04/2016 RM0.55 RM0.860 RM1.29
RAMUNIA-WA 19/12/2014 RM0.51 RM0.260 RM0.49
My basis of considerations:
1. Expiry date : more than 3 years.
2. Underlying share : BRDB and TGOFFS posted profit for the past three years. As for Ramuinia, I believe the SIME-Ramunia "story" still intact.
3. Trading at low premium after conversion except Ramunia-wa.
4. From now till the next 3 years, I think there will be atleast a few rounds of uptrend for our KLSE.
5. Do not put all your money in these counters. My advice will be 10-20% of your fund for this kind of risky counter or use whatever gain from previous investment to try your "luck".
Abritraging opportunity:
Ramunia-PA (20/12/2009), PA trading at RM0.43, conversion 1:1, Underlying RM0.49 ( provide 13% potential return for 3 months), provided RAMUNIA share price hold RM0.49 and above.
KURNIA ASIA
If you beleive Capt. Chai, the new CEO of Kurasia able to turn around the company, then maybe we can expect the share price to move back to RM1.00.
Kurasia share price has been slowly moving from RM0.60 to RM0.75 . It look like some activities to accumulate this counter.
RM1.0-RM0.75=RM0.25 ( 33% upside)
If the company able to deliver positive/better result for coming quarterly financial annoucement (ended 30-9-2009), then we should consider this stock.
Kurasia share price has been slowly moving from RM0.60 to RM0.75 . It look like some activities to accumulate this counter.
RM1.0-RM0.75=RM0.25 ( 33% upside)
If the company able to deliver positive/better result for coming quarterly financial annoucement (ended 30-9-2009), then we should consider this stock.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Proton...finally
Proton share price move to RM4.50 level followed by annoucement. Take profit at this level for those entered at RM2.90 ( 55% return within 1 month).
If you wish to wait for RM5.00, my advice will be.... cash out atleast 70%.
Go for other counters / opportunities ( either in Malaysia or foreign market).
If you wish to wait for RM5.00, my advice will be.... cash out atleast 70%.
Go for other counters / opportunities ( either in Malaysia or foreign market).
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
APB-Resources BHD ( share price:RM0.97)
Background:
APB Resources Berhad and its Subsidiaries (APB Group) are involved in the fabrication of specialized design engineering equipment for petrochemical process industry, chemical industry, oil palm processing industry, paper mill industry and power generation industry, and the provision of non-destructive testing services.
APB Resources Berhad is listed on the Main Market of the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad.
Suitable for mid-long term investors :
1. dividend yield of 6-7% p.a based on RM0.97 closing price.
2. EPS for cummulative three quarter @ 13 cents / shares.
3. potential to increase capacity with additional land acquired and increase in its EPS.
4. No borrowing. Net cash position of approximately RM0.40 per shares.
Risk : counter illiquid.
If the company management able to secure more contract for coming months, I think the potential is there. 12 months target price : RM1.30 of its NTA
APB Resources Berhad and its Subsidiaries (APB Group) are involved in the fabrication of specialized design engineering equipment for petrochemical process industry, chemical industry, oil palm processing industry, paper mill industry and power generation industry, and the provision of non-destructive testing services.
APB Resources Berhad is listed on the Main Market of the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad.
Suitable for mid-long term investors :
1. dividend yield of 6-7% p.a based on RM0.97 closing price.
2. EPS for cummulative three quarter @ 13 cents / shares.
3. potential to increase capacity with additional land acquired and increase in its EPS.
4. No borrowing. Net cash position of approximately RM0.40 per shares.
Risk : counter illiquid.
If the company management able to secure more contract for coming months, I think the potential is there. 12 months target price : RM1.30 of its NTA
Friday, September 11, 2009
Stock Watch: Affin Bank
Why?
1. Strong shareholders- LTAT, Boustead and Bank of East Asia (HK)
2. Public spread - major shareholders hold most of the shares and easy to "push" when any annoucement is made.
3. PE - low PE (8X based on RM1.93), industry PE is 14X for 1st tier bank. IF, given PE of 10X, price may move to RM2.40. PE 12X, target price RM2.88
Any Risk?
Strong shareholder back-up. Don't worry.
If you are looking at 14-20% return within 3 months...Good TRY
1. Strong shareholders- LTAT, Boustead and Bank of East Asia (HK)
2. Public spread - major shareholders hold most of the shares and easy to "push" when any annoucement is made.
3. PE - low PE (8X based on RM1.93), industry PE is 14X for 1st tier bank. IF, given PE of 10X, price may move to RM2.40. PE 12X, target price RM2.88
Any Risk?
Strong shareholder back-up. Don't worry.
If you are looking at 14-20% return within 3 months...Good TRY
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
CPO..rebounded.
CPO today closed higher. Crude Oil and Soybean oil rebounded due to weak USD$.
US will need a weak currency in order to boost export to help its economy atleast for period of 1-2 years. Therefore, we need to be caution about the commodity prices as we can not expect a low commodity price during recovery period.
As for CPO, I think 2100 level is the immediate strong support (worst case scenario is 1835 level for short period of time only).
Trading range for this week is 2127 - 2248. If 2248 break, then the next level will be 2300.
US will need a weak currency in order to boost export to help its economy atleast for period of 1-2 years. Therefore, we need to be caution about the commodity prices as we can not expect a low commodity price during recovery period.
As for CPO, I think 2100 level is the immediate strong support (worst case scenario is 1835 level for short period of time only).
Trading range for this week is 2127 - 2248. If 2248 break, then the next level will be 2300.
After Proton...Can DRBHCOM Move?
Fundamentally DRBHCOM do not warrant any good value. However, being a GLC proxy, this counter may give us a surprise. Target price RM1.70 given by financeblogspot. It look like accumulation at 1.15-1.20 level. If you are looking at 20% return for short term trading, target price of RM1.44 is achieveable.
Proton today break RM3.50 and hit high RM3.70. Good move and volume increase.
Happy trading and maybe can get some Hari Raya Ang Pow.
Proton today break RM3.50 and hit high RM3.70. Good move and volume increase.
Happy trading and maybe can get some Hari Raya Ang Pow.
Monday, September 7, 2009
CPO..Time To Rebound?
After three weeks of selling pressure, CPO Nov 09 contract closed at RM2130. (15-8-09, CPO still trading at 2400-2500 level). The next support level should be 2099, 2050 and 2000 level. If OPEC decided to cut output, crude oil may sustain at USD$68 level and CPO may sustain at 2100-2155 level. Time to LONG CPO for short term trading and SHORT level should be 2175 and above.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Proton...Really Want To Try RM4.00? 4-9-2009
Proton share price has been hovering around RM3.00 to RM3.10 for 2 weeks and finally break RM3.10 level and touch RM3.30. Today closed RM3.17 with volume 2298 lots traded.
If the share price able to maintain at RM3.15-3.30 level for coming week and with any annoucement to be made, I think the share price may try RM3.50 level next week.
Happy trading
If the share price able to maintain at RM3.15-3.30 level for coming week and with any annoucement to be made, I think the share price may try RM3.50 level next week.
Happy trading
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Proton
Proton share price today move up despite the Malaysia market and other regional market closed lower. Therefore, watch out for this counter and can start to accumulate at 2.90 and below. The turn-around story may happen.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Will there be any adjustment from Sept-Oct ?
After the financial reporting season, investors are looking for fresh leads for the market direction. Therefore, the market may trading:
1. Sideline- if NO NEGATIVE news reported.
2. Downward - if some NEGATIVE news reported.
3. Limited upside - if POSITIVE news reported (very unlikely)
So, in order to be safe, cash out atleast 50% of your portfolio will be the next 2 months startegy. However, short term trading opportunities will emerge when the market is volatile.
Happy trading and remember to set cut loss when situation turn negative.
1. Sideline- if NO NEGATIVE news reported.
2. Downward - if some NEGATIVE news reported.
3. Limited upside - if POSITIVE news reported (very unlikely)
So, in order to be safe, cash out atleast 50% of your portfolio will be the next 2 months startegy. However, short term trading opportunities will emerge when the market is volatile.
Happy trading and remember to set cut loss when situation turn negative.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
CPO Rally End ?
CPO Oct and Nov contract failed to break 2520 level this week and may retreat to 2335 level for coming week if the following data continue to weaken:
1. Soyabean - Friday close 37.79 (last week high 39.25). May retreat to 33.00 level if output incease.
2. Crude Oil- Friday close 67.51 (-3.00 compare to Thursday closing price).
3. Demand for CPO - the first 10 days Aug 09 Malaysia export already drop 13%. If the orders for CPO continue to reduce with the increase in output, the inventory level may go up to 1.4 m tonnes again at the end of August 09.
1. Soyabean - Friday close 37.79 (last week high 39.25). May retreat to 33.00 level if output incease.
2. Crude Oil- Friday close 67.51 (-3.00 compare to Thursday closing price).
3. Demand for CPO - the first 10 days Aug 09 Malaysia export already drop 13%. If the orders for CPO continue to reduce with the increase in output, the inventory level may go up to 1.4 m tonnes again at the end of August 09.
Monday, August 10, 2009
KONSORT?..RM1.80-RM2.20
Possible? looking at the price movement, its share price well maintain at 1.20 then 1.55 level. Any breakout at RM1.70 level, the share price may try RM2.00-RM2.20 level.
Faber. GLC Counter with good earning
2QFY09 EPS achieve 4.81 cents. Annualised EPS =19.24 cents. PE less than 6X
With PE 8x, share price can go up to RM1.52 once share price break through RM1.20 level
With PE 8x, share price can go up to RM1.52 once share price break through RM1.20 level
NCB: Port Operator...Any special dividend
NCB hold cash per share RM1.30
EPS this year = RM0.27
Dividend per share = RM0.25...translated into 8.5% DY based on RM2.92 closing price on 7 August 2009.
Very defensive counter and any special dividend payment will push the share price to RM3.20 level. IF...PNB going to privatise the company, potential price will be RM3.50-RM4.00 level.
EPS this year = RM0.27
Dividend per share = RM0.25...translated into 8.5% DY based on RM2.92 closing price on 7 August 2009.
Very defensive counter and any special dividend payment will push the share price to RM3.20 level. IF...PNB going to privatise the company, potential price will be RM3.50-RM4.00 level.
Proton? Found New Strategic Partner
Proton share price has been hovering around RM2.60-2.80 level.
Since early of August 2009, some activities to accumulation this counter at 2.80-2.90 level and todar 10 August 2009, the share price up 14 cents.
Market talk: RM4.00 level, which is 50% of its NTA value.
Can that happen?
Since early of August 2009, some activities to accumulation this counter at 2.80-2.90 level and todar 10 August 2009, the share price up 14 cents.
Market talk: RM4.00 level, which is 50% of its NTA value.
Can that happen?
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
HK Market :Stock Watch 1- August09
1. Hong Kong Market >>Hope Well Highway Infrastructure (0737.hk----HKD 5.00).
i) Defensive counter with solid business model (collect cash just like PLUS Malaysia)
ii) Healthy balance sheet with strong cash flow.
iii) Dividend payout ratio up to 70% of EPS. 1Q09 EPS-HKD0.19..annulised should be HKD0.76. Provide dividend yield of approximately 10%
iv) Previous was HKD 7.80 level. If China market going to move further, the shre price may go up to HKD6.5 with PE still less than 10X.
vi) Even the China market temporary adjust downward, this counter is good to accumulate.
i) Defensive counter with solid business model (collect cash just like PLUS Malaysia)
ii) Healthy balance sheet with strong cash flow.
iii) Dividend payout ratio up to 70% of EPS. 1Q09 EPS-HKD0.19..annulised should be HKD0.76. Provide dividend yield of approximately 10%
iv) Previous was HKD 7.80 level. If China market going to move further, the shre price may go up to HKD6.5 with PE still less than 10X.
vi) Even the China market temporary adjust downward, this counter is good to accumulate.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Using SIM 1-2-3-6
More and more bad news flowing in and we see giant corporation collaped one by one. So, any more bad news ? Belowa are some of the potential bad news may happen:
1. Credit card bad loan- a jobless man will spend using their credit card and let the loan outstanding. The credit situation will turn into bad loan after 3-6 months. Therefore, the credit card issue may burst somewhere after May 2009.
2. Deterioting demand for goods- the contagion effect from the sharp increase in the unemployment rate will continue. On the other side there are some good effect from the global governments' stimulus package.
My advise will be : get ready to invest and most of the time we won't be able to know the market can go down to which level. What we can control is our investment strategies. But before we move on to investing, it is good to know the following:
1. Know the amount that set aside for investment.
2. Know the potential risk/losses that you willing to take. (worst scenerio, at least to hold for 3 years)
3. Know the number of counters you ready to invest. (also depend on your investment amount)
4. Know the number of quantity in each counters you ready to invest.
5. Apply some dollar cost averaging method.
Strategies: Simple Investment Method (SIM) 1-2-3-6
2. Whenever economy recover, equity market tend to rebound 20-50% from the bottom.
3. The recovery will be very strong and atleast for 3-5 years.
4. Invest in benchmark counter@SIME .
Let us divide our investment amount into 12 portions (1+2+3+6=12).
RM120,000 investment value:- RM10K-RM20K-RM30K-RM60K
1. Credit card bad loan- a jobless man will spend using their credit card and let the loan outstanding. The credit situation will turn into bad loan after 3-6 months. Therefore, the credit card issue may burst somewhere after May 2009.
2. Deterioting demand for goods- the contagion effect from the sharp increase in the unemployment rate will continue. On the other side there are some good effect from the global governments' stimulus package.
The above may or may not happen depend on US goverment's stimulus package.
The concern for most investors out there is when is the right time to invest?
My advise will be : get ready to invest and most of the time we won't be able to know the market can go down to which level. What we can control is our investment strategies. But before we move on to investing, it is good to know the following:
1. Know the amount that set aside for investment.
2. Know the potential risk/losses that you willing to take. (worst scenerio, at least to hold for 3 years)
3. Know the number of counters you ready to invest. (also depend on your investment amount)
4. Know the number of quantity in each counters you ready to invest.
5. Apply some dollar cost averaging method.
Strategies: Simple Investment Method (SIM) 1-2-3-6
Assumption:
1. If economy continue deterioting, the equity market may drop up to 30-35%.2. Whenever economy recover, equity market tend to rebound 20-50% from the bottom.
3. The recovery will be very strong and atleast for 3-5 years.
4. Invest in benchmark counter@SIME .
Let us divide our investment amount into 12 portions (1+2+3+6=12).
RM120,000 investment value:- RM10K-RM20K-RM30K-RM60K
Step 1: NOW KLCI 900---------------- Use 10K to buy SIME @ 5.60 -------------1,785 shares
Step 2: KLCI 810-765 (drop 10-15%)---Use 20K to buy SIME @ 5.04-4.76-- 4,081 shares
Step 3: KLCI 720-675 (drop 20-25%)---Use 30K to buy SIME @ 4.48-4.20--6,912 shares
Step 4: KLCI 630-585 (drop 30-35%)---Use 60K to buy SIME @ 3.92-3.64---15,873 shares
Total quantity = 28,651 shares bought at average RM4.19.
Compared to closing price of RM3.64, investment portfolio drop by 13% or RM15,600.
If the recovery really take place after equity market drop more than 30-35%, I believe the rebound will be in the range of 20-40% within 1 year. That means, SIME may recover from 3.64 to 4.36 - 5.10 level or even higher.
Based on RM5.10 level, the investment portfolio will provide return of RM26K (21.7%).
If the whole economy recovery for atleast 3-5 years, I think SIME may try to go back to its previous high. If SIME can go back to let say RM 9 level after 3-5 years, the total portfolio will have a return of RM137K.
Highlight:
1. Use your own strategy which you feel more comfortable instead of trying to guess the right timing to enter market.
2.The above investment startegy allow you to exist either in step 1,2,3 or 4 whenever there is a technical rebound take place and the portfolio is making money.
For further inquiry, call me directly.
Friday, October 24, 2008
When is the right time to enter share market?
Global markets tumbled again due to:
1. The contagion effect of sub-prime mortgage issue.
2. Winding down on Yen Carry Trade cousing commodities prices tumbled sharply. Oil price today hit USD$64.
3. Consumer spending power deterioting badly in US and Europe and will affect the global demand for goods. Therefore, the chain effect will spread widely and fast to whole world.
Personal views on the timing to enter shares market;
1. The weak global consumer consumption will turn bad after Christmas and Chinese New Year.
2. Global production figures will reduce and jobless rate will increase sharply.
Therefore, the right timing to enter may be somewhere after May/June 2009. Unless some meaningful fiscal policies take and help to boost the economy.
Current strategies for existing portfolio will be :
1. Take profit for TM@3.36 and realised profit of RM1,600. Hold cash
2. Buy t0 average NCB 10,000 shares@2.30. Buy to average TMI 2,000 shares@4.60.
Strategies:Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a
Equity Investment: Fund =RM151,400 , Invested =RM113,500
Buy Genting 10,000@5.15
Buy Genting 2,000@4.60 ( Average price is RM5.06 )
Buy NCB 10,000@3.00
Buy NCB 10,000@2.30 ( Average price is RM2.65 )
Futures & Options Investment:Amount = RM50,000 (Open position)
Short 2 FKLI Contract @845 points
Money Market: 3% retutn : Amount =RM50,000
As at 25-9-2008= Interest return is RM657
From 26-9-08 to 25-10-2008 interest return is RM123.28 ( Total interest return will be RM780)
1. The contagion effect of sub-prime mortgage issue.
2. Winding down on Yen Carry Trade cousing commodities prices tumbled sharply. Oil price today hit USD$64.
3. Consumer spending power deterioting badly in US and Europe and will affect the global demand for goods. Therefore, the chain effect will spread widely and fast to whole world.
Personal views on the timing to enter shares market;
1. The weak global consumer consumption will turn bad after Christmas and Chinese New Year.
2. Global production figures will reduce and jobless rate will increase sharply.
Therefore, the right timing to enter may be somewhere after May/June 2009. Unless some meaningful fiscal policies take and help to boost the economy.
Current strategies for existing portfolio will be :
1. Take profit for TM@3.36 and realised profit of RM1,600. Hold cash
2. Buy t0 average NCB 10,000 shares@2.30. Buy to average TMI 2,000 shares@4.60.
Strategies:Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a
Equity Investment: Fund =RM151,400 , Invested =RM113,500
Buy Genting 10,000@5.15
Buy Genting 2,000@4.60 ( Average price is RM5.06 )
Buy NCB 10,000@3.00
Buy NCB 10,000@2.30 ( Average price is RM2.65 )
Futures & Options Investment:Amount = RM50,000 (Open position)
Short 2 FKLI Contract @845 points
Money Market: 3% retutn : Amount =RM50,000
As at 25-9-2008= Interest return is RM657
From 26-9-08 to 25-10-2008 interest return is RM123.28 ( Total interest return will be RM780)
Friday, September 26, 2008
Taking Private !
When share price is trading low below its fair value with major shareholder hold more than 30%, the likelihood is to privatise the company. Company to watch out : Ranhill
Ranhill
The earning per share from RUBHD may contribute up to RM0.24. With the major shareholder hold more than 50%, I think sooner or later may taking private. The existing NTA of RM0.61 ( last quarter losses after dispose oil exploration activities) and current share price below RM0.80 plus some support at RM0.65 level provide good opportunity to accumulate this counter.
Ranhill
The earning per share from RUBHD may contribute up to RM0.24. With the major shareholder hold more than 50%, I think sooner or later may taking private. The existing NTA of RM0.61 ( last quarter losses after dispose oil exploration activities) and current share price below RM0.80 plus some support at RM0.65 level provide good opportunity to accumulate this counter.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Investment Strategic Update-25-09-2008
Market views:
1. If the US Congress passsed the USD$700 billion bailout, I believe this move will help to instill the "temporary" confident and market will stabalise for while.
2. Therefore, good timing for trading buy in certain counters and Buy Call for NCB
Stock pick:
i) Buy TM 10,000 shares@3.20 (Investment value=RM32,000)
ii) Buy Genting 10,000 shares@5.15 (Investment value=RM51,500)
iii) Buy NCB 10,000 share@3.00 (Investment value =RM32,000), medium to long term investment
Strategies:Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a
Equity Investment: Fund =RM150,000 Invested =RM113,500
Buy TM 10,000@3.20
Buy Genting 10,000@5.15
Buy NCB 10,000@3.00
Futures & Options Investment:
Amount = RM50,000 (No position)
Money Market: 3% retutn
Amount = RM200,000 Withdraw =RM150,000
New Position =RM50,000
15-8-2008 to 25-9-2008 Interest return is RM657
1. If the US Congress passsed the USD$700 billion bailout, I believe this move will help to instill the "temporary" confident and market will stabalise for while.
2. Therefore, good timing for trading buy in certain counters and Buy Call for NCB
Stock pick:
i) Buy TM 10,000 shares@3.20 (Investment value=RM32,000)
ii) Buy Genting 10,000 shares@5.15 (Investment value=RM51,500)
iii) Buy NCB 10,000 share@3.00 (Investment value =RM32,000), medium to long term investment
Strategies:Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a
Equity Investment: Fund =RM150,000 Invested =RM113,500
Buy TM 10,000@3.20
Buy Genting 10,000@5.15
Buy NCB 10,000@3.00
Futures & Options Investment:
Amount = RM50,000 (No position)
Money Market: 3% retutn
Amount = RM200,000 Withdraw =RM150,000
New Position =RM50,000
15-8-2008 to 25-9-2008 Interest return is RM657
Sunday, August 17, 2008
2H08 Investment Strategics For M'sia Market
The overall market sentiment is still blink and the outlook for 2H08 also uncertain with political unstability and inflation pressure. Results:
1. Reduce in corporate earning
2. For good management, cost push will force them to increase their operation efficiency.
3. Commodities price will still volatile but will stabalise probably toward the end of 1Q2009.
4. CPO price may retreat to RM2,000 level if oil price drop to USD$100 and below.
5. Downward bias for equity market for atleast another two quaters.
6. Parking fund in money market and seek trading opportunities in futures market.
Strategies:
Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a
Equity Investment: Nil
Will buy for trading if market drop more than 30 points. Wait for opportunities.
Futures & Options Investment:
Amount = RM50,000
Money Market: 3% retutn
Amount = RM200,000
1. Reduce in corporate earning
2. For good management, cost push will force them to increase their operation efficiency.
3. Commodities price will still volatile but will stabalise probably toward the end of 1Q2009.
4. CPO price may retreat to RM2,000 level if oil price drop to USD$100 and below.
5. Downward bias for equity market for atleast another two quaters.
6. Parking fund in money market and seek trading opportunities in futures market.
Strategies:
Investment amount = RM250,000 Start date: 15 August 2008 Target Return: 30% p.a
Equity Investment: Nil
Will buy for trading if market drop more than 30 points. Wait for opportunities.
Futures & Options Investment:
Amount = RM50,000
Money Market: 3% retutn
Amount = RM200,000
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
U.S. Stocks Drop on Credit-Market Concern ?
By Eric Martin
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell on concern that last week's cut in the Federal Reserve's discount rate isn't enough to stem losses in credit markets.
Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the lender forced to stop taking home-loan applications earlier this month, retreated after saying it sold $20.5 billion of mortgage-backed securities at a loss. Financial shares posted the steepest decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, led by Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. dropped after the price of oil fell.
The S&P 500 slipped 11.34, or 0.8 percent, to 1,434.60 at 12:16 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 64.95, or 0.5 percent, to 13,014.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 12.85, or 0.5 percent, to 2,492.18.
``A number of risks still remain, including troublesome credit markets,'' said Michael Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. in New York. ``There's still a fair amount of leverage throughout the global financial system. We're not out of the woods yet.''
Today's drop follows the S&P 500's biggest rally in four years after the Fed lowered its discount lending rate on Aug. 17 and said it will ``act as needed'' to keep credit market losses from spreading. Today, European stocks climbed and Asian markets, open for the first time since the Fed's move, rose the most in three years.
Tips: Last Friday provide a very good bargian hunting for quality counters like Resort,Genting,PBB,OSK,Sapcrest,UEMWRLD and Ranhill. And the uptrend continue today. However, the credit risk for sub-prime is still not over yet and the yen carry trade may continue to unwind their positions. What we can do is to pick quality companies on average basis to accumulate whenever the market is dropping. But, remember to buy at slow pave. Seek advise from your advisor. Those already entered on last Friday remember to cash out.
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell on concern that last week's cut in the Federal Reserve's discount rate isn't enough to stem losses in credit markets.
Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the lender forced to stop taking home-loan applications earlier this month, retreated after saying it sold $20.5 billion of mortgage-backed securities at a loss. Financial shares posted the steepest decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, led by Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. dropped after the price of oil fell.
The S&P 500 slipped 11.34, or 0.8 percent, to 1,434.60 at 12:16 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 64.95, or 0.5 percent, to 13,014.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 12.85, or 0.5 percent, to 2,492.18.
``A number of risks still remain, including troublesome credit markets,'' said Michael Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. in New York. ``There's still a fair amount of leverage throughout the global financial system. We're not out of the woods yet.''
Today's drop follows the S&P 500's biggest rally in four years after the Fed lowered its discount lending rate on Aug. 17 and said it will ``act as needed'' to keep credit market losses from spreading. Today, European stocks climbed and Asian markets, open for the first time since the Fed's move, rose the most in three years.
Tips: Last Friday provide a very good bargian hunting for quality counters like Resort,Genting,PBB,OSK,Sapcrest,UEMWRLD and Ranhill. And the uptrend continue today. However, the credit risk for sub-prime is still not over yet and the yen carry trade may continue to unwind their positions. What we can do is to pick quality companies on average basis to accumulate whenever the market is dropping. But, remember to buy at slow pave. Seek advise from your advisor. Those already entered on last Friday remember to cash out.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Yen Carry Trade..Over Already?
Campbell, John Henry Get Losses as Subprime Devours Carry Trade
By Liz Capo McCormick
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- A doubling in currency volatility since June has knocked the ``carry trade'' off its perch as the most profitable strategy in foreign exchange, hurting investors from John W. Henry & Co. to Campbell & Co.
In one of the more popular carry trades, a U.S. investor who borrowed in yen to buy high-yielding Australian dollars enjoyed a return of 11 percent this year through June 5, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gains have since been wiped out.
Chalk up another victim to the spreading U.S. subprime mortgage contagion. The fallout from losses on loans made to people with poor credit is spreading so fast that investors are selling any asset smacking of high risk around the globe, causing wide swings in exchange rates that weren't anticipated. New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s index of volatility on options for the most-traded currencies reached 13.4 percent last week, the highest since 1999.
``We were caught off guard,'' said Terri Becks, president and chief operating officer of Towson, Maryland-based Campbell. ``When these anomalies in the market happen, in this case how highly correlated moves in many markets were, you are either on the right side or the wrong side. This time we were definitely on the wrong side'' in currencies, interest rates and equities.
Campbell's biggest fund, with $9 billion in assets, lost 10.8 percent in July, the most since 1990. John W. Henry's $122 million Financial and Metals Portfolio fell 11.7 percent in July, its worst month since March.
Rising currency volatility is bad for investors in the carry trade because it increases the risk that gains from interest-rate differentials will be erased by foreign-exchange losses. The JPMorgan volatility index fell the past two years, reaching a record low of 5.76 percent on June 8.
Henry's Loss
In currencies, Boca Raton, Florida-based Henry's largest loss in July was in the yen, Kenneth Webster, president and chief operating officer, said in a statement on its Web site. Assets at the firm, which is owned by John W. Henry, who also controls the Boston Red Sox baseball team, have plummeted by 75 percent since November to $479 million.
``The turmoil in the credit markets had a collateral effect on the currency markets as investors bought back short positions in low-yielding currencies,'' Webster wrote. He declined to comment beyond the statement on the Web site. A short position is where an investor has trades set up that would profit from a decline in the value of a currency.
Investors who hoped for a rebound in the carry trade this month are likely disappointed. The Australia dollar has lost 15 percent since it reached 107.74 yen on July 20, the highest since 1991, as investors sold the currency and bought back yen. That helped push Japan's currency to a 14-month high of 111.61 per U.S. dollar on Aug. 17.
Not Over
``I don't think that the unwind of the carry trade is over by a long shot,'' said Naomi Fink, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. ``The subprime issues remain.''
Rising delinquencies on subprime mortgages forced two hedge funds managed by New York-based Bear Stearns Cos. to file for bankruptcy last month, while BNP Paribas SA in France halted withdrawals from three funds because it couldn't ``fairly'' value their holdings. The Federal Reserve last week cut the rate it charges banks by half a percentage point to 5.75 percent in an attempt to avert a credit crunch and restore investor confidence.
``The herd is stampeding, and somewhere it will stop,'' said Harry Markowitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in economics in 1990 and now a finance professor at the Rady School of Management at the University of California, San Diego. ``The news will pass and things will start to settle down again.''
Carry Trade Dissected
In the carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates, like Japan, and invest the proceeds in the currencies of countries such as Australia, New Zealand and South Africa with high rates. They profit on the difference. Overnight lending rates in Japan average 0.5 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.
The carry trade outpaced three other currency strategies through June, returning 2.6 percent for 2007, data from ABN Amro Holdings NV, the biggest Dutch lender, show.
A 2.4 percent drop in July erased most of the 2007 gain and put it behind a 2 percent profit for traders focusing on swings in volatility, according to ABN. The two other styles, valuation and trend, have both lost money this year.
``The best of times for the carry trade is in the past,'' said Paul Lambert, who manages the Polar Capital Discovery Absolute Return Fund for London-based Polar Capital Holdings Plc, with $3.8 billion in assets. Lambert's fund gained 1.3 percent in July, he said.
Computer Models
Becks cited July 26 as the day that pushed the firm to adjust its computer-model-driven strategy, and reduce leverage by 50 percent. As global stocks fell that day, the yen closed stronger than 120 per dollar for the first time since May.
Campbell's Financial, Metal & Energy Large Portfolio has lost 6.02 percent this year, for a 13.8 percent annual return since its 1983 debut. John W. Henry's Financial and Metals Portfolio is down 11.18 percent this year, bringing its annual return to 22.6 percent since it was started in 1984.
``The cost of carry is volatility,'' said Peter Jacobson, managing director at London-based Rhicon Currency Management Ltd., which oversees $300 million. ``If the spot currency markets move a lot it's more difficult to hold on to long carry.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Liz Capo McCormick in New York at emccormick7@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 19, 2007 11:09 EDT
By Liz Capo McCormick
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- A doubling in currency volatility since June has knocked the ``carry trade'' off its perch as the most profitable strategy in foreign exchange, hurting investors from John W. Henry & Co. to Campbell & Co.
In one of the more popular carry trades, a U.S. investor who borrowed in yen to buy high-yielding Australian dollars enjoyed a return of 11 percent this year through June 5, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gains have since been wiped out.
Chalk up another victim to the spreading U.S. subprime mortgage contagion. The fallout from losses on loans made to people with poor credit is spreading so fast that investors are selling any asset smacking of high risk around the globe, causing wide swings in exchange rates that weren't anticipated. New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s index of volatility on options for the most-traded currencies reached 13.4 percent last week, the highest since 1999.
``We were caught off guard,'' said Terri Becks, president and chief operating officer of Towson, Maryland-based Campbell. ``When these anomalies in the market happen, in this case how highly correlated moves in many markets were, you are either on the right side or the wrong side. This time we were definitely on the wrong side'' in currencies, interest rates and equities.
Campbell's biggest fund, with $9 billion in assets, lost 10.8 percent in July, the most since 1990. John W. Henry's $122 million Financial and Metals Portfolio fell 11.7 percent in July, its worst month since March.
Rising currency volatility is bad for investors in the carry trade because it increases the risk that gains from interest-rate differentials will be erased by foreign-exchange losses. The JPMorgan volatility index fell the past two years, reaching a record low of 5.76 percent on June 8.
Henry's Loss
In currencies, Boca Raton, Florida-based Henry's largest loss in July was in the yen, Kenneth Webster, president and chief operating officer, said in a statement on its Web site. Assets at the firm, which is owned by John W. Henry, who also controls the Boston Red Sox baseball team, have plummeted by 75 percent since November to $479 million.
``The turmoil in the credit markets had a collateral effect on the currency markets as investors bought back short positions in low-yielding currencies,'' Webster wrote. He declined to comment beyond the statement on the Web site. A short position is where an investor has trades set up that would profit from a decline in the value of a currency.
Investors who hoped for a rebound in the carry trade this month are likely disappointed. The Australia dollar has lost 15 percent since it reached 107.74 yen on July 20, the highest since 1991, as investors sold the currency and bought back yen. That helped push Japan's currency to a 14-month high of 111.61 per U.S. dollar on Aug. 17.
Not Over
``I don't think that the unwind of the carry trade is over by a long shot,'' said Naomi Fink, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. ``The subprime issues remain.''
Rising delinquencies on subprime mortgages forced two hedge funds managed by New York-based Bear Stearns Cos. to file for bankruptcy last month, while BNP Paribas SA in France halted withdrawals from three funds because it couldn't ``fairly'' value their holdings. The Federal Reserve last week cut the rate it charges banks by half a percentage point to 5.75 percent in an attempt to avert a credit crunch and restore investor confidence.
``The herd is stampeding, and somewhere it will stop,'' said Harry Markowitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in economics in 1990 and now a finance professor at the Rady School of Management at the University of California, San Diego. ``The news will pass and things will start to settle down again.''
Carry Trade Dissected
In the carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates, like Japan, and invest the proceeds in the currencies of countries such as Australia, New Zealand and South Africa with high rates. They profit on the difference. Overnight lending rates in Japan average 0.5 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.
The carry trade outpaced three other currency strategies through June, returning 2.6 percent for 2007, data from ABN Amro Holdings NV, the biggest Dutch lender, show.
A 2.4 percent drop in July erased most of the 2007 gain and put it behind a 2 percent profit for traders focusing on swings in volatility, according to ABN. The two other styles, valuation and trend, have both lost money this year.
``The best of times for the carry trade is in the past,'' said Paul Lambert, who manages the Polar Capital Discovery Absolute Return Fund for London-based Polar Capital Holdings Plc, with $3.8 billion in assets. Lambert's fund gained 1.3 percent in July, he said.
Computer Models
Becks cited July 26 as the day that pushed the firm to adjust its computer-model-driven strategy, and reduce leverage by 50 percent. As global stocks fell that day, the yen closed stronger than 120 per dollar for the first time since May.
Campbell's Financial, Metal & Energy Large Portfolio has lost 6.02 percent this year, for a 13.8 percent annual return since its 1983 debut. John W. Henry's Financial and Metals Portfolio is down 11.18 percent this year, bringing its annual return to 22.6 percent since it was started in 1984.
``The cost of carry is volatility,'' said Peter Jacobson, managing director at London-based Rhicon Currency Management Ltd., which oversees $300 million. ``If the spot currency markets move a lot it's more difficult to hold on to long carry.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Liz Capo McCormick in New York at emccormick7@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 19, 2007 11:09 EDT
Global Markets Rally After Fed Acts to Contain Credit Turmoil
By Lynn Thomasson and Shannon D. Harrington
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- In the world's financial markets, the subprime mortgage collapse may finally be contained.
Stocks in the U.S. and Europe rallied yesterday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut the discount rate to ease a credit crunch. Crude oil, copper and gold advanced on reduced concern that the U.S. economy, the world's largest, would slow. Three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields rose because the need for government debt as a safe haven diminished, and the dollar fell against the euro for the first time in a week.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 34.67, or 2.5 percent, to close at 1,445.94, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 233.3, or 1.8 percent, to 13,079.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 53.96, or 2.2 percent, to 2,505.03.
When the Fed announced the rate reduction at 8:15 a.m. New York time, S&P 500 futures soared 3.6 percent in 46 seconds. Within 15 minutes, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index was up 2.4 percent. Credit-default swaps on the CDX North America Investment-Grade Index dropped 6 basis points to 72 basis points as the perception of U.S. corporate-bond risk declined.
Tips: FED expected to reduce interest rate further to ease the credit crunch. Another possible factor to help to improve US economy as a whole is to force China government to allow Chinese RMB to appreciate. If this will be the next move, I think market will rally to new high after this sub-prime issue.But, according some source, the yen carry trade is NOT OVER YET
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- In the world's financial markets, the subprime mortgage collapse may finally be contained.
Stocks in the U.S. and Europe rallied yesterday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut the discount rate to ease a credit crunch. Crude oil, copper and gold advanced on reduced concern that the U.S. economy, the world's largest, would slow. Three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields rose because the need for government debt as a safe haven diminished, and the dollar fell against the euro for the first time in a week.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 34.67, or 2.5 percent, to close at 1,445.94, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 233.3, or 1.8 percent, to 13,079.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 53.96, or 2.2 percent, to 2,505.03.
When the Fed announced the rate reduction at 8:15 a.m. New York time, S&P 500 futures soared 3.6 percent in 46 seconds. Within 15 minutes, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index was up 2.4 percent. Credit-default swaps on the CDX North America Investment-Grade Index dropped 6 basis points to 72 basis points as the perception of U.S. corporate-bond risk declined.
Tips: FED expected to reduce interest rate further to ease the credit crunch. Another possible factor to help to improve US economy as a whole is to force China government to allow Chinese RMB to appreciate. If this will be the next move, I think market will rally to new high after this sub-prime issue.But, according some source, the yen carry trade is NOT OVER YET
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Recovery in Sub-prime market?
U.S. Stocks Advance; Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Rise
By Lynn Thomasson
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks gained on speculation financial companies can recover from a credit crunch as buyers emerged for bonds backed by mortgages.
Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led a gauge of banks and brokerages higher for the first time in five days after Canadian financial services firm Coventree Inc. found buyers for asset-backed debt. Genworth Financial Inc., the insurer divested by General Electric Co. in 2006, climbed after saying the mortgage-backed bond market would cost the company no more than $195 million over five years.
``This market to us looks very oversold and I think it's beginning to create some values in stocks,'' said Craig Hester, who oversees $1.5 billion as president of Hester Capital Management in Austin, Texas.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 4.71, or 0.3 percent, to 1,431.25 as of 11:36 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 6.18, or 0.1 percent, to 13,022.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 8.99, or 0.4 percent, to 2,508.11.
Coventree, Canada's biggest non-bank issuer of asset-backed commercial paper, had sought emergency funding because it was unable to refinance debt that matured this week. Today it said found buyers for C$600 million ($557 million) of debt.
Tips: If really a very " Gang Ho " investor to buy this ABS with opinion the market is "oversold", out there still got how many "gang ho" buyer to buy this Sub-Prime product?..So, wait and see...Anyway, advisee is - stand-by your bullet and wait for the right time to re-enter the market. Counters to watch-out: OSK,GENTING,RESORT,HLBANK,HLFG, MAYBE CONSIDER UEMWORLD,FABER,
By Lynn Thomasson
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks gained on speculation financial companies can recover from a credit crunch as buyers emerged for bonds backed by mortgages.
Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led a gauge of banks and brokerages higher for the first time in five days after Canadian financial services firm Coventree Inc. found buyers for asset-backed debt. Genworth Financial Inc., the insurer divested by General Electric Co. in 2006, climbed after saying the mortgage-backed bond market would cost the company no more than $195 million over five years.
``This market to us looks very oversold and I think it's beginning to create some values in stocks,'' said Craig Hester, who oversees $1.5 billion as president of Hester Capital Management in Austin, Texas.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 4.71, or 0.3 percent, to 1,431.25 as of 11:36 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 6.18, or 0.1 percent, to 13,022.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 8.99, or 0.4 percent, to 2,508.11.
Coventree, Canada's biggest non-bank issuer of asset-backed commercial paper, had sought emergency funding because it was unable to refinance debt that matured this week. Today it said found buyers for C$600 million ($557 million) of debt.
Tips: If really a very " Gang Ho " investor to buy this ABS with opinion the market is "oversold", out there still got how many "gang ho" buyer to buy this Sub-Prime product?..So, wait and see...Anyway, advisee is - stand-by your bullet and wait for the right time to re-enter the market. Counters to watch-out: OSK,GENTING,RESORT,HLBANK,HLFG, MAYBE CONSIDER UEMWORLD,FABER,
Yen Carry Trades
What's happening now?
While some hedge funds have put their "no redemptions" clause into action, most are deleveraging, hence the volatility due to the unwinding process. Many hedge funds may be down 10%-30% ytd but the fear in redemptions will cause them to deleverage from say 2x-4x back to 1x just to cash up for future redemptions. The other type of unwinding will be the yen carry trade, hence the intermittent selling in Asia's most popular markets have been more severe than most: e.g. Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong; needless to say the less popular markets to foreign funds have seen lesser volatility, such as Japan and Thailand. To stress the point further, why has Shanghai been able to brush aside the subprime worries - a) little or no yen carry trade invested in China stock hence no unwinding; b) little access for foreign hedge funds or even mutual funds to direct Chinese shares (with a few exceptions).
TIPS: SELL AT LEAST 50% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO AND HOLD CASH OR TEMPORARY SWITH TO MONEY MARKET TO EARN SOME LITTLE INTEREST.
While some hedge funds have put their "no redemptions" clause into action, most are deleveraging, hence the volatility due to the unwinding process. Many hedge funds may be down 10%-30% ytd but the fear in redemptions will cause them to deleverage from say 2x-4x back to 1x just to cash up for future redemptions. The other type of unwinding will be the yen carry trade, hence the intermittent selling in Asia's most popular markets have been more severe than most: e.g. Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong; needless to say the less popular markets to foreign funds have seen lesser volatility, such as Japan and Thailand. To stress the point further, why has Shanghai been able to brush aside the subprime worries - a) little or no yen carry trade invested in China stock hence no unwinding; b) little access for foreign hedge funds or even mutual funds to direct Chinese shares (with a few exceptions).
TIPS: SELL AT LEAST 50% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO AND HOLD CASH OR TEMPORARY SWITH TO MONEY MARKET TO EARN SOME LITTLE INTEREST.
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