China Banking Sector (Part 1) : Very Attractive? Cheap Valuation ? (Table 1)

Current Price (06-10-2011)	ICBC 3.77	BOC 2.32	CCB 4.70	PFH 2.96	ABC 2.45	BCOMM 4.46
EPS 2007	0.26	0.24	0.32	0.61	-	0.45
EPS 2008	0.37	0.28	0.45	0.33	-	0.65
EPS 2008 (Growth %)*	44%	19%	40%	-46%		45%
EPS 2009	0.43	0.35	0.52	0.25	0.28	0.67
EPS 2009 (Growth %)*	16%	25%	16%	-23%		3%
EPS 2010	0.5672	0.46	0.6617	0.41	0.3899	0.8626
EPS 2010 (Growth %)*	31%	31%	26%	63%	37%	28%
Average EPS Growth Rate	31%	25%	28%	-2%	37%	25%
Dividend Payment (2010)	0.20	0.17	0.24	0.21	0.14	0.24
Dividend Yield	5.4%	7.3%	5.2%	7.1%	5.8%	5.4%
Dividend Payment (2011)	0.22	0.18	0.26	0.05	0.07	0.02
Dividend Yield	5.9%	7.6%	5.4%	1.7%	2.7%	0.5%
52 weeks High	6.90	5.02	8.47	6.25	4.85	9.51
53 weeks Low	4.67	2.88	5.02	3.52	3.22	5.15
Current Price (06-10-2011)	3.77	2.32	4.70	2.96	2.45	4.46
Current PE Ratio	6.65	5.03	7.10	7.22	6.28	5.17
EPS Half of 2011	0.38	0.24	0.37	0.19	0.21	0.43
Expected EPS (2011)	0.76	0.48	0.74	0.38	0.42	0.86
PE ratio (end of 2011)	4.98	4.83	6.35	7.83	5.83	5.19
Expected PE ratio (2011)	10	10	10	10	10	10
Fair Value	7.57	4.80	7.40	3.78	4.20	8.60
Potential Upside	101%	107%	57%	28%	71%	93%
*All figures were converted to HKD from CNY

RHBCAP & OSK MERGER : TARGET PRICE > RM2.00 ?

Compared to previous stockbroking merger cases, the take over price ranging from 0.69x-2.32x (average of 1.2x) of their price to book value.  OSK definitely can command higher price to book value based on following :-

1. With regional present in Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia.
2. Holding commercial banking license in Cambodia- OSK Indochina Bank Limited.
3. Strong Investment Banking background and retail clientele.

Latest book value per share = RM1.57,
Potential upside relatively to the potential merger price that may taken place:-

		Upside
Price to	Valuation	Based on Current Price
Book Value		RM1.60
1.00	1.57	-
1.10	1.73	7.9%
1.20	1.88	17.8%
1.30	2.04	27.6%
1.40	2.20	37.4%
1.50	2.36	47.2%
1.60	2.51	57.0%
1.70	2.67	66.8%
1.80	2.83	76.6%
1.90	2.98	86.4%
2.00	3.14	96.3%
2.10	3.30	106.1%
2.20	3.45	115.9%
2.30	3.61	125.7%

IF merger take place at above 1.5x of the book value, OSK will be valued @ at least RM2.36 and above. Provide minimum  47 % upside during this uncertainty market condition.

IF you are looking for stock that provide minimum downside during this uncertain market, OSK maybe a good choice for you.

GOOD LUCK!

Merger between RHBCAP and OSK .Target price OSK RM2.00?

THEEDGE DAILY : RHBCAP and OSK merger, apply to BNM for principle approval.

Buy OSK.

PLANTATION SECTOR : GOLDEN AGRI (E5HSI)

Golden Agri share price SGD0.63. GOOD BUY.

Trading Strategic For Golden Agri:

1. Buy when share price range from SGD0.63 and below.
2. If Crude Palm Oil price rebounded and its share price bounce back to SGD0.68 or above, CASH OUT and make > 7 % return .

HAPPY TRADING.

Get Ready To Enter Market !

It's time to identify some good stock to accumulate whenever the market adjust downward. Get ready your cash and apply SIM 1-2-3 investment approach. I have identified 5 stocks with following assumptions:

1. Adjusted EPS (-10%) based on bleak economic outlook for coming months.
2. Stocks with solid earning capacity and ability to pay consistent dividend.
3. Execute the investment plan with suggested entry points (total 3 entry points).


Suggested Malaysia stock with -10% adjusted EPS :-

Stock	Industry	EPS	Adj EPS	DPS	Payout Ratio	Current Price	DY
			-10%			23-9-2011
AEONCR	Consumer	0.7086	0.638	0.32	50%	4.70	6.78%
NCB	Logistic	0.234	0.211	0.21	100%	3.70	5.69%
TDM	Plantation	0.528	0.475	0.19	40%	2.82	6.74%
KFIMA	Plantation	0.328	0.295	0.09	30%	1.57	5.64%
AFFIN	Banking	0.322	0.289	0.09	31%	2.36	3.82%

Valuation and Suggested Entry Points :-

Stock	PER	FAIR PER	FAIR VALUE	ENTRY LEVEL
				Level 1	Level 2	Level 3
AEONCR	7.37	8.00	5.10	4.15	3.83	3.51
NCB	17.57	12.00	2.53	3.37	3.16	2.95
TDM	5.93	7.00	3.33	2.61	2.38	2.14
KFIMA	5.32	7.00	2.07	1.48	1.33	1.18
AFFIN	8.15	10.00	2.89	2.17	1.88	1.59

Counters To Put Under Your Watch List:-

1. AEONCR
-Consumer based and owned by Japanese
- expected EPS of at least 70 cts and dividend of 30 cts-40 cts .
-Price = RM4.70
- Accumulate when share price below RM4.50

2. NCB
- Port operator and owned by Permodalan Nasional Berhad (government linked)
- Consistent dividend payout. 25 cts-30 cte per annum
- Net gearing.
- Accumulate when share price drop below RM 3.50

Golden Agri ( E5H.SI )- SGD 0.64

During market uncertainty and volatile like now, it would be good to identify company that is fundamentally strong and can provide opportunity to make money. TRY Golden Agri:

Background:-

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd ("GAR") is the world's second largest palm oil plantation company with a total planted area of 446,200 hectares (including smallholders) as at 30 June 2011, located in Indonesia. It has integrated operations focused on the production of palm-based edible oil and fat.

Founded in 1996, GAR is listed on the Singapore Exchange since 1999 with a market capitalisation of US$6.7 billion as at 30 June 2011. Flambo International Ltd, an investment company, is GAR's largest shareholder, with a 50% stake. GAR has several subsidiaries, including PT SMART Tbk wich is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange since 1992.

GAR is focused on sustainable palm oil production. In Indonesia, its primary activities include cultivating and harvesting of oil palm trees; processing of fresh fruit bunch into crude palm oil ("CPO") and palm kernel; and refining CPO into value-added products such as cooking oil, margarine and shortening. It also has integrated operations in China including a deep-sea port, oilseeds crushing plants, production capabilities for refined edible oil products as well as other food products such as noodles.

Key Numbers

USD (Currency in Millions)

Income Statement
Total Revenue			$3504.66
Gross Profit			$954.59
Total Operating Expense			$1593.69
Operating Income			$1910.97
Net Income before taxes			$1929.18
Net Income after taxes			$1447.15
Net Profit Margin			41.29%
Balance Sheet
Total Assets			$10114.45
Current Assets			$1491.91
Total Liabilities			$3288.59
Current Liabilities			$1060.90
Long Term Debt			$443.64
Total Debt			$984.35
Total Equity			$6825.86
Cash Flows
Cash from Operating Activities			$167.41
Cash from Investing Activities			$(469.79)
Cash from Financing Activities			$184.37
Net Change in Cash			$(118.00)

Total Revenue (Millions)	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	12 months
2011	$1463.03	$1600.51	NA	NA	NA
2010	NA	$726.22	$964.74	$1189.16	$3504.66

Net Income (Millions)	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	12 months
2011	$230.70	$179.86	NA	NA	NA
2010	NA	$66.05	$99.17	$1169.30	$1423.04

Listed on SGX and quoted in SGD. Conversion 1 USD = SGD 1.208

1. EPS = SGD 0.08
2. Healthy Balance Sheet
3. Improved net profit and sustainable.

Accumulate if share price range from 0.64 - 0.56.

PER ===Share Price (SGD)
10 ===0.80
9 ===0.72
8 === 0.64
7 ===0.56
6 === 0.48

Golden Agri share is actively trading on SGX, therefore this counter able to provide trading opportunity for those looking for 5%-10% investment return.

KULIM (Stock Code 2003): RM3.78

Price maintain well at RM3.50-3.80 level ( trading at PER11x).
May start to accumulate if share price drop below RM3.50.

GOOD LUCK!

Counters That Can Try Your Luck.!

1. BIMB - TP = RM2.30 - RM2.45
2. PCHEM - TP= RM6.80-RM7.00
3. TDM - TP = RM3.20-RM3.30
4. AFFIN - TP = RM3.30 -RM3.50

Storm To Wipe Off The Shares Market ?

Opportunity to accumulate when panic selling happened in the market.

Strategies:
1. Identify fundamentally sound and low gearing companies. (e.g blue-chip )
2. Apply 3 ROUNDS dollar cost averaging method to accumulate companies identified in step 1.
(Only average when share price drop 10%-15%)
3. Buy companies with good dividend payout records and holding a lot of cash in hand.

TDM ( stock code:2054) - share price RM3.18

Share price moving steadily since last call on 19-7-2011 (RM3.05).
Buy before you will regret to miss another good stuff that can provide potential return of atleast 10% and above during market with a lot uncertainty like now.

Refer to post dated on 19-7-2011 for some information that can help you to make investment decision.

THPLANT (5112) SHARE PRICE -RM2.10

TH Plantation posts higher Q2 pre-tax profit

TH Plantations Bhd (THP) pre-tax profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 surged to RM54.24 million from RM12.54 million in the same period last year.

Revenue jumped to RM112.71 million from RM76 million previously due to higher commodity prices for crude palm oil, palm kernel and fresh fruit bunches, it said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia today.

For the six-month period ended June 30, 2011, pre-tax profit rose to RM84.91 million from RM39.74 million in the same period last year. Revenue increased to RM187.76 million from RM153.21 million previously.

"This (higher profit) was also mainly due to higher commodity prices and higher gross profit margin," it said.

THP said notwithstanding the volatility of the commodity prices, the company was optimistic of sustaining its current satisfactory performance. -- Bernama

Read more: TH Plantation posts higher Q2 pre-tax profit http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20110721203951/Article/index_html#ixzz1Skt2XN24

_________________________________________________________________

The estimated 2011 EPS = 26 sen.
Based on PER 10x = RM2.60. PER 12x = RM3.12

ACCUMULATE AT THIS LEVEL. POTENTIAL UPSIDE OF 23%-47%. For those investor looking for min investment return of 20% can consider THPLANT.

GOOD LUCK!

AFG.Target Price RM3.60? OR RM4.60?

If Temasek want to dispose AFG shareholding @ 2 X BV
BV = 2.16 x 2 = 4.32
BV = 2.30 x2 = 4.60

Anyway, my target price for AFG should ranging from 3.80-4.20 level.

GOOD LUCK!

TDM (Stock code 2054)- shares price RM3.05

TDM = Plantation + Health Care = STABLE + SOLID BUSINESS.

Salient points:
1. Healthy balance sheet = net cash position.
2. Strong earning = EPS of 48 sen.
3. Potential acquisition for additional hospital to broader its health care unit and enhance futures earning.
4. NTA = RM3.34.


Target Price = RM3.60 - RM4.00 based on PER of 7x to 8x forward earning.

KFIMA: SHARE PRICE RM1.82. CAN BUY?

Recent market down turn provide opportunity to accumulate KFIMA.

If the merger between FIMACORP and KFIMA materialised, then the valuation for KFIMA will be revised.

Estimated EPS = atleast 30 sen and potential future dividend will be atleast = 15 sen.

Target Price based on Dividend Yield of 6% = RM2.50
Target Price based on PER of 7X = RM2.10, PER of 8X = RM2.40

Focus on the target and work on your capital in hand to accumulate this counter!

KFIMA-6491 . SHARE PRICE CAN MOVE FURTHER?

Next target = RM2.10 , RM2.50

Good Luck!

AFG.Target Price RM3.60?

AFG ( Stock Code 2488) : Alliance Financial Group:

EPS = 26.4 sen
PER = 12.19x
BV/Share = RM2.165
P/BV = 1.48X

IF AFG become the next target takeover /merger candidate, based on the existing BV/share and P/BV of 1.6x-1.8x, the share price may touch RM3.45 to RM3.90 ( potential 7.5%-14% upside)

Suitable for defensive investors who looking for safe investment.

GOOD LUCK !

KFIMA-6491 . SHARE PRICE CAN MOVE FURTHER?

Business merger between FIMACORP and KFIMA.

Target Price for KFIMA if share swap involved : RM2.10

Bank Islam Malaysia-(5258)- Share Price Recover

Hope this round BIMB can break the previous resistance at RM2.00 and continue to move toward RM2.20 follow by RM2.40 (12X PER).

GOOD LUCK!

KUB (6874)

大馬統一放眼明年營收20億

• 大馬財經

2011-06-14 19:03

（吉隆坡14日訊）大馬統一（KUB, 6874, 主板貿服組）獲蜆殼石油（SHELL, 4324, 主板工業產品組）遴選進入最終決選名單，成為液化石油天然氣（LPG）業務潛在得主，一旦獲標，將直接晉升成國內第二大液化天然氣供應商，更放眼明年錄取 20億令吉營業額。

該公司董事經理拿督莫哈末納薩透露，旗下天然氣業務目前在大馬佔有12%市佔率，平均每年貢獻2億8千萬至3億令吉營業額，惟只要成功收購蜆殼石油液化天然氣資產，市佔率將大幅暴增至32%，相關業務營業額也將雙倍走高。（星洲互動）



MINISTRY OF FINANCE OWN 23.4% SHAREHOLDING? Interesting counter.
WATCH OUT!
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER TURNAROUND (AFTER RESTRUCTURING) COMPANY WITH MOF AS SHAREHOLDER SITTING ON BOARD. START TO MAKE PROFIT SINCE YEAR 2008.

Assuming net profit margin as RM50 million (net profit margin of 2.5%) with turnover RM2 billion, EPS=RM0.09.
Current Price = RM0.69, 10X PER for forward earning, FV = RM0.90, 12X PER for oil & gs sector, FV = RM1.08.

GOOD LUCK!