Monday, August 22, 2011

Golden Agri ( E5H.SI )- SGD 0.64

During market uncertainty and volatile like now, it would be good to identify company that is fundamentally strong and can provide opportunity to make money. TRY Golden Agri:

Background:-

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd ("GAR") is the world's second largest palm oil plantation company with a total planted area of 446,200 hectares (including smallholders) as at 30 June 2011, located in Indonesia. It has integrated operations focused on the production of palm-based edible oil and fat.

Founded in 1996, GAR is listed on the Singapore Exchange since 1999 with a market capitalisation of US$6.7 billion as at 30 June 2011. Flambo International Ltd, an investment company, is GAR's largest shareholder, with a 50% stake. GAR has several subsidiaries, including PT SMART Tbk wich is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange since 1992.

GAR is focused on sustainable palm oil production. In Indonesia, its primary activities include cultivating and harvesting of oil palm trees; processing of fresh fruit bunch into crude palm oil ("CPO") and palm kernel; and refining CPO into value-added products such as cooking oil, margarine and shortening. It also has integrated operations in China including a deep-sea port, oilseeds crushing plants, production capabilities for refined edible oil products as well as other food products such as noodles.


Key Numbers USD (Currency in Millions)
Income Statement
Total Revenue $3504.66
Gross Profit $954.59
Total Operating Expense $1593.69
Operating Income $1910.97
Net Income before taxes $1929.18
Net Income after taxes $1447.15
Net Profit Margin 41.29%
Balance Sheet
Total Assets $10114.45
Current Assets $1491.91
Total Liabilities $3288.59
Current Liabilities $1060.90
Long Term Debt $443.64
Total Debt $984.35
Total Equity $6825.86
Cash Flows
Cash from Operating Activities $167.41
Cash from Investing Activities $(469.79)
Cash from Financing Activities $184.37
Net Change in Cash $(118.00)
Total Revenue (Millions) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 months
2011 $1463.03 $1600.51 NA NA NA
2010 NA $726.22 $964.74 $1189.16 $3504.66
Net Income (Millions) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 months
2011 $230.70 $179.86 NA NA NA
2010 NA $66.05 $99.17 $1169.30 $1423.04

Listed on SGX and quoted in SGD. Conversion 1 USD = SGD 1.208

1. EPS = SGD 0.08
2. Healthy Balance Sheet
3. Improved net profit and sustainable.

Accumulate if share price range from 0.64 - 0.56.

PER ===Share Price (SGD)
10 ===0.80
9 ===0.72
8 === 0.64
7 ===0.56
6 === 0.48

Golden Agri share is actively trading on SGX, therefore this counter able to provide trading opportunity for those looking for 5%-10% investment return.
























KULIM (Stock Code 2003): RM3.78

Price maintain well at RM3.50-3.80 level ( trading at PER11x).
May start to accumulate if share price drop below RM3.50.

GOOD LUCK!

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Counters That Can Try Your Luck.!

1. BIMB - TP = RM2.30 - RM2.45
2. PCHEM - TP= RM6.80-RM7.00
3. TDM - TP = RM3.20-RM3.30
4. AFFIN - TP = RM3.30 -RM3.50

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Storm To Wipe Off The Shares Market ?


Opportunity to accumulate when panic selling happened in the market.

Strategies:
1. Identify fundamentally sound and low gearing companies. (e.g blue-chip )
2. Apply 3 ROUNDS dollar cost averaging method to accumulate companies identified in step 1.
(Only average when share price drop 10%-15%)
3. Buy companies with good dividend payout records and holding a lot of cash in hand.


Wednesday, July 27, 2011

TDM ( stock code:2054) - share price RM3.18

Share price moving steadily since last call on 19-7-2011 (RM3.05).
Buy before you will regret to miss another good stuff that can provide potential return of atleast 10% and above during market with a lot uncertainty like now.

Refer to post dated on 19-7-2011 for some information that can help you to make investment decision.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

THPLANT (5112) SHARE PRICE -RM2.10

TH Plantation posts higher Q2 pre-tax profit


TH Plantations Bhd (THP) pre-tax profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 surged to RM54.24 million from RM12.54 million in the same period last year.

Revenue jumped to RM112.71 million from RM76 million previously due to higher commodity prices for crude palm oil, palm kernel and fresh fruit bunches, it said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia today.

For the six-month period ended June 30, 2011, pre-tax profit rose to RM84.91 million from RM39.74 million in the same period last year. Revenue increased to RM187.76 million from RM153.21 million previously.

"This (higher profit) was also mainly due to higher commodity prices and higher gross profit margin," it said.


THP said notwithstanding the volatility of the commodity prices, the company was optimistic of sustaining its current satisfactory performance. -- Bernama
_________________________________________________________________

The estimated 2011 EPS = 26 sen.
Based on PER 10x = RM2.60. PER 12x = RM3.12

ACCUMULATE AT THIS LEVEL. POTENTIAL UPSIDE OF 23%-47%. For those investor looking for min investment return of 20% can consider THPLANT.

GOOD LUCK!

AFG.Target Price RM3.60? OR RM4.60?

If Temasek want to dispose AFG shareholding @ 2 X BV
BV = 2.16 x 2 = 4.32
BV = 2.30 x2 = 4.60

Anyway, my target price for AFG should ranging from 3.80-4.20 level.

GOOD LUCK!

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

TDM (Stock code 2054)- shares price RM3.05

TDM = Plantation + Health Care = STABLE + SOLID BUSINESS.

Salient points:
1. Healthy balance sheet = net cash position.
2. Strong earning = EPS of 48 sen.
3. Potential acquisition for additional hospital to broader its health care unit and enhance futures earning.
4. NTA = RM3.34.


Target Price = RM3.60 - RM4.00 based on PER of 7x to 8x forward earning.

KFIMA: SHARE PRICE RM1.82. CAN BUY?

Recent market down turn provide opportunity to accumulate KFIMA.

If the merger between FIMACORP and KFIMA materialised, then the valuation for KFIMA will be revised.

Estimated EPS = atleast 30 sen and potential future dividend will be atleast = 15 sen.

Target Price based on Dividend Yield of 6% = RM2.50
Target Price based on PER of 7X = RM2.10, PER of 8X = RM2.40

Focus on the target and work on your capital in hand to accumulate this counter!

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

AFG.Target Price RM3.60?

AFG ( Stock Code 2488) : Alliance Financial Group:

EPS = 26.4 sen
PER = 12.19x
BV/Share = RM2.165
P/BV = 1.48X

IF AFG become the next target takeover /merger candidate, based on the existing BV/share and P/BV of 1.6x-1.8x, the share price may touch RM3.45 to RM3.90 ( potential 7.5%-14% upside)

Suitable for defensive investors who looking for safe investment.

GOOD LUCK !

KFIMA-6491 . SHARE PRICE CAN MOVE FURTHER?

Business merger between FIMACORP and KFIMA.

Target Price for KFIMA if share swap involved : RM2.10

Friday, June 24, 2011

Bank Islam Malaysia-(5258)- Share Price Recover

Hope this round BIMB can break the previous resistance at RM2.00 and continue to move toward RM2.20 follow by RM2.40 (12X PER).

GOOD LUCK!

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

KUB (6874)

大馬統一放眼明年營收20億

(吉隆坡14日訊)大馬統一(KUB, 6874, 主板貿服組)獲蜆殼石油(SHELL, 4324, 主板工業產品組)遴選進入最終決選名單,成為液化石油天然氣(LPG)業務潛在得主,一旦獲標,將直接晉升成國內第二大液化天然氣供應商,更放眼明年錄取 20億令吉營業額。

該公司董事經理拿督莫哈末納薩透露,旗下天然氣業務目前在大馬佔有12%市佔率,平均每年貢獻2億8千萬至3億令吉營業額,惟只要成功收購蜆殼石油液化天然氣資產,市佔率將大幅暴增至32%,相關業務營業額也將雙倍走高。(星洲互動)



MINISTRY OF FINANCE OWN 23.4% SHAREHOLDING? Interesting counter.
WATCH OUT!
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER TURNAROUND (AFTER RESTRUCTURING) COMPANY WITH MOF AS SHAREHOLDER SITTING ON BOARD. START TO MAKE PROFIT SINCE YEAR 2008.

Assuming net profit margin as RM50 million (net profit margin of 2.5%) with turnover RM2 billion, EPS=RM0.09.
Current Price = RM0.69, 10X PER for forward earning, FV = RM0.90, 12X PER for oil & gs sector, FV = RM1.08.

GOOD LUCK!

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update : 10-6-2011

Profit taking for AEONCR ( cost=RM3.70, sell =RM4.88 , 29% return)

TRADESZONE4U PORTFOLIO
SINCE:
25-10-2010
9.70
%

CAPITAL (RM)
250,000

TO-DATE

Company
Quantity
Ave Cost
Current Price
+/-
Total Cost
Mkt Value
P/ L
Var (%)

10-6-2011

CIMB NIAGA
50,000
0.547
0.588
0.04
27,560
29,195
1,634
5.9
GAMUDA
20,000
3.810
3.750
-0.06
76,757
74,453
-2,305
-3.0
KFIMA
60,000
1.550
1.690
0.14
93,679
100,659
6,980
7.5
SHARES

(1)

197,996
204,306
17,484
7.4

TRUST BALANCE

(2)

52,004
52,004

REALISED GAIN

17,819

TOTAL SHARES AND CASH ( B+C )
(3)=(1)+(2)
250,000
274,129
24,129
9.7

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

BIMB and TAKAFUL :Islamic Financing -Growing industry in Malaysia

Bank Islam Malaysia (BIMB) - RM1.81
Takaful Malaysia - RM1.84

price moving today with more than 10% (in less than a week from my last post dated 26-5-2011).

What's up? Cheapest bank and insurance company in Malaysia?

Bank Islam Malaysia- estimated EPS = 20 sen, TP = RM2.40 based on 12X PER.
Takaful Malaysia - estimated EPS = 28 sen, TP = RM2.50 based 1X book value.

GOOD LUCK!

Thursday, May 26, 2011

KFIMA-6491..EPS 26.99 sen vs 22.32 sen

Salient points from the financial result 4Q2010:

1. Increase in EPS from 22.32 sen to 26.99 sen
2. Total cash balance = RM217 million
3. Profit = RM107 million
4. Total Asset = RM885 million, Total Liabilities = RM186 million, Equity = RM649 million
5. Borrowing = RM67 million ( net cash position)
6. NTA = RM1.76
7. Proposed dividend @ 7% less tax ( dividend yield 4% based on share price RM1.75)
8. Solid business model mainly from security documents unit, plantation and bulking.

For other information, please refer to my post dated 23 May 2011.

Islamic Financing-Growing Industry In Malaysia?

Takaful Insurance and Bank Islam Malaysia (BIMB) just posted their latest financial result with encouraging improvement.

I believe the Takaful insurance will continue its momentum at least for another 5 years as the upcoming middle income group of young Malay working population will continue to support this industry growth in Malaysia.

Takaful Insurance (RM1.61) : target price Level 1= RM1.90 , Level 2 = RM2.50

BIMB (RM1.62) : Islamic Banking + Takaful insurance : target price Level 1 =RM1.80, level 2 = RM2.00

Both provide at least potential upside of 12% - 18% for Level 1 target price.

GOOD LUCK!

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update : 24-5-2011

TRADESZONE4U PORTFOLIO
SINCE:
25-10-2010
6.98
%

CAPITAL (RM)
250,000

TO-DATE

Company
Quantity
Ave Cost
Current Price
+/-
Total Cost
Mkt Value
P/ L
Change in %

24-5-2011

CIMB NIAGA
50,000
0.547
0.581
0.03
27,560
28,857
1,296
4.70
AEONCR
10,000
3.700
4.400
0.70
37,270
43,679
6,409
17.20
GAMUDA
20,000
3.810
3.700
-0.11
76,757
73,460
-3,297
-4.30
KFIMA
60,000
1.550
1.680
0.13
93,679
100,064
6,385
6.82
SHARES

(1)

235,266
246,059
10,793
4.59

TRUST BALANCE

(2)

14,734
14,734

REALISED GAIN

6,646
6,646

TOTAL SHARES AND CASH ( B+C )
(3)=(1)+(2)
250,000
267,439
17,439
6.98

Monday, May 23, 2011

KFIMA-6491..GOOD BUY!

Last post : 21-3-2011
Share Price : RM1.58

Financial result going to be released either this week or early next week. Its controlling company FIMACOR (approx. 61%) financial result also due for announcement this week.

Cash balance approximately RM200 million or cash per share of RM0.76 and still building up because of cash dividend flow in from FIMACOR (3107) and consistent earning from plantation segment.

Year EPS (sen) DPS (sen)
2010 22.32 5.00 9M2010 EPS = 19.86, estimated 12M2010 EPS= atleast 25 sen
2011 25.00 10.00* *estimation
2012 30.00 15.00*

Target Price:
1. RM2.00 based on 8x PER for FY2011
2. RM2.00 based on dividend yield of 5% based on 10 sen dividend payout in 2011
3. RM2.00 - RM2.50 based on dividend yield of 5% if dividend payout 15 sen in year 2012.

SHORT TERM TARGET - RM1.85

GOOD LUCK!

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Invest Indonesia - Golden Agri (GAR)- SGD0.68

Share price = SGD0.68, Indonesia based plantation company.
Listed on SGX
Gearing = 0.08 time


Financial result for 1Q2011 released with USD230 million profit.
EPS = USD 0.019 ( SGD0.023).

If GAR able to maintain the quarterly profit at 100 million per quarter for next 3 quarter, then the annualised result should be around USD0.043 (SGD0.05-SGD0.06).

The share price currently trading at forward PER of 11X and target price SGD0.81 based on 15x PER FY2011 after taking into foreign exchange (USD & SGD) fluctuation (10% range).

Potential upside = at least 19%.

Thursday, May 12, 2011

AEONCR (5139) - RM4.52. Can go up further ?

Share price touch my mid-term target in less than a month. The next question is whether the AEONCR share price can go up further to my longer term target price of RM5.00-RM5.50 ( refer to write up dated 19-4-20110).

Two possibilities:

1. Based on dividend payout of RM300 a year, with dividend yield of 5.5%, the share price can reach RM5.45. Institution investors and defensive investor will consider continue to buy AEONCR if they think AEONCR will follow AEON track records.

2. Potential bonus issue since its retained earning is sufficient to issue at least 1:1 bonus shares. With that AEONCR able to increase its paid up capital and for longer term objective AEONCR able to raise more capital with its enlarged capital base.


BACKGROUND - AEON (LISTED ON BURSA)

AEON listed someway year 2000 with share price range RM3.50-RM4.00.
Over 10 years, if you hold 1,000 share of AEON (investment amount RM4,000), with 2 round of bonus issue, now you are holding 4,000 share and the share price cureently trading at RM6.00 level (worth RM24,000). On top of that, AEON has been proved to be a GOOD dividend counters.

Will AEONCR follow AEON track record (Japanese owned companies)? Think about foreign owned companies business strategic :-

Make profit - must send back thru dividend payment.
Accumulated earning - capitalised the earning / asset value to enlarge its paid up capital base.

GOOD LUCK!

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update : 9-5-2011

TRADESZONE4U PORTFOLIO SINCE: 25-10-2010


CAPITAL (RM) 250,000
TO-DATE 2.85%






Company
Quantity
Ave Cost
Current Price
+/-
Total Cost
Sales Proceed
Mkt Value
P/ L
Change in %

9-5-2011

CIMB NIAGA
50,000
0.547
0.581
0.03
27,560
29,070
28,857
1,296 4.7
AEONCR
10,000
3.700
4.200
0.50
37,270
42,000
41,693
4,423 11.9
GAMUDA
20,000
3.810
3.610
-0.20
76,757
72,200
71,672
-5,085 -6.6
KFIMA
60,000
1.550
1.570
0.02
93,679
94,200
93,512
-167 -0.2
SHARES

(1)

235,266
237,470
235,734
468 0.2

TRUST BALANCE

(2)

14,734

14,734

REALISED GAIN

6,646
6,646

TOTAL SHARES AND CASH ( B+C )
(3)=(1)+(2)

250,000

257,114
7,114 2.85
BUY KFIMA 30,000 SHARE@ RM1.55 PENDING FINANCIAL RESULT DUE END OF MAY 2011