Traderszone4U Portfolio Update : 10-6-2011

Profit taking for AEONCR ( cost=RM3.70, sell =RM4.88 , 29% return)

TRADESZONE4U PORTFOLIO			SINCE:	25-10-2010		9.70	%
CAPITAL (RM)	250,000		TO-DATE
Company	Quantity	Ave Cost	Current Price	+/-	Total Cost	Mkt Value	P/ L	Var (%)
			10-6-2011
CIMB NIAGA	50,000	0.547	0.588	0.04	27,560	29,195	1,634	5.9
GAMUDA	20,000	3.810	3.750	-0.06	76,757	74,453	-2,305	-3.0
KFIMA	60,000	1.550	1.690	0.14	93,679	100,659	6,980	7.5
SHARES			(1)		197,996	204,306	17,484	7.4
TRUST BALANCE			(2)		52,004	52,004
REALISED GAIN						17,819
TOTAL SHARES AND CASH ( B+C )			(3)=(1)+(2)		250,000	274,129	24,129	9.7

BIMB and TAKAFUL :Islamic Financing -Growing industry in Malaysia

Bank Islam Malaysia (BIMB) - RM1.81
Takaful Malaysia - RM1.84

price moving today with more than 10% (in less than a week from my last post dated 26-5-2011).

What's up? Cheapest bank and insurance company in Malaysia?

Bank Islam Malaysia- estimated EPS = 20 sen, TP = RM2.40 based on 12X PER.
Takaful Malaysia - estimated EPS = 28 sen, TP = RM2.50 based 1X book value.

GOOD LUCK!

KFIMA-6491..EPS 26.99 sen vs 22.32 sen

Salient points from the financial result 4Q2010:

1. Increase in EPS from 22.32 sen to 26.99 sen
2. Total cash balance = RM217 million
3. Profit = RM107 million
4. Total Asset = RM885 million, Total Liabilities = RM186 million, Equity = RM649 million
5. Borrowing = RM67 million ( net cash position)
6. NTA = RM1.76
7. Proposed dividend @ 7% less tax ( dividend yield 4% based on share price RM1.75)
8. Solid business model mainly from security documents unit, plantation and bulking.

For other information, please refer to my post dated 23 May 2011.

Islamic Financing-Growing Industry In Malaysia?

Takaful Insurance and Bank Islam Malaysia (BIMB) just posted their latest financial result with encouraging improvement.

I believe the Takaful insurance will continue its momentum at least for another 5 years as the upcoming middle income group of young Malay working population will continue to support this industry growth in Malaysia.

Takaful Insurance (RM1.61) : target price Level 1= RM1.90 , Level 2 = RM2.50

BIMB (RM1.62) : Islamic Banking + Takaful insurance : target price Level 1 =RM1.80, level 2 = RM2.00

Both provide at least potential upside of 12% - 18% for Level 1 target price.

GOOD LUCK!

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update : 24-5-2011

TRADESZONE4U PORTFOLIO			SINCE:	25-10-2010		6.98	%
CAPITAL (RM)	250,000		TO-DATE
Company	Quantity	Ave Cost	Current Price	+/-	Total Cost	Mkt Value	P/ L	Change in %
			24-5-2011
CIMB NIAGA	50,000	0.547	0.581	0.03	27,560	28,857	1,296	4.70
AEONCR	10,000	3.700	4.400	0.70	37,270	43,679	6,409	17.20
GAMUDA	20,000	3.810	3.700	-0.11	76,757	73,460	-3,297	-4.30
KFIMA	60,000	1.550	1.680	0.13	93,679	100,064	6,385	6.82
SHARES			(1)		235,266	246,059	10,793	4.59
TRUST BALANCE			(2)		14,734	14,734
REALISED GAIN						6,646	6,646
TOTAL SHARES AND CASH ( B+C )			(3)=(1)+(2)		250,000	267,439	17,439	6.98

KFIMA-6491..GOOD BUY!

Last post : 21-3-2011
Share Price : RM1.58

Financial result going to be released either this week or early next week. Its controlling company FIMACOR (approx. 61%) financial result also due for announcement this week.

Cash balance approximately RM200 million or cash per share of RM0.76 and still building up because of cash dividend flow in from FIMACOR (3107) and consistent earning from plantation segment.

Year EPS (sen) DPS (sen)
2010 22.32 5.00 9M2010 EPS = 19.86, estimated 12M2010 EPS= atleast 25 sen
2011 25.00 10.00* *estimation
2012 30.00 15.00*

Target Price:
1. RM2.00 based on 8x PER for FY2011
2. RM2.00 based on dividend yield of 5% based on 10 sen dividend payout in 2011
3. RM2.00 - RM2.50 based on dividend yield of 5% if dividend payout 15 sen in year 2012.

SHORT TERM TARGET - RM1.85

GOOD LUCK!

Invest Indonesia - Golden Agri (GAR)- SGD0.68

Share price = SGD0.68, Indonesia based plantation company.
Listed on SGX
Gearing = 0.08 time


Financial result for 1Q2011 released with USD230 million profit.
EPS = USD 0.019 ( SGD0.023).

If GAR able to maintain the quarterly profit at 100 million per quarter for next 3 quarter, then the annualised result should be around USD0.043 (SGD0.05-SGD0.06).

The share price currently trading at forward PER of 11X and target price SGD0.81 based on 15x PER FY2011 after taking into foreign exchange (USD & SGD) fluctuation (10% range).

Potential upside = at least 19%.

AEONCR (5139) - RM4.52. Can go up further ?

Share price touch my mid-term target in less than a month. The next question is whether the AEONCR share price can go up further to my longer term target price of RM5.00-RM5.50 ( refer to write up dated 19-4-20110).

Two possibilities:

1. Based on dividend payout of RM300 a year, with dividend yield of 5.5%, the share price can reach RM5.45. Institution investors and defensive investor will consider continue to buy AEONCR if they think AEONCR will follow AEON track records.

2. Potential bonus issue since its retained earning is sufficient to issue at least 1:1 bonus shares. With that AEONCR able to increase its paid up capital and for longer term objective AEONCR able to raise more capital with its enlarged capital base.


BACKGROUND - AEON (LISTED ON BURSA)

AEON listed someway year 2000 with share price range RM3.50-RM4.00.
Over 10 years, if you hold 1,000 share of AEON (investment amount RM4,000), with 2 round of bonus issue, now you are holding 4,000 share and the share price cureently trading at RM6.00 level (worth RM24,000). On top of that, AEON has been proved to be a GOOD dividend counters.

Will AEONCR follow AEON track record (Japanese owned companies)? Think about foreign owned companies business strategic :-

Make profit - must send back thru dividend payment.
Accumulated earning - capitalised the earning / asset value to enlarge its paid up capital base.

GOOD LUCK!

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update : 9-5-2011

TRADESZONE4U PORTFOLIO			SINCE:	25-10-2010
CAPITAL (RM)	250,000		TO-DATE	2.85%

Company	Quantity	Ave Cost	Current Price	+/-	Total Cost	Sales Proceed	Mkt Value	P/ L	Change in %
			9-5-2011
CIMB NIAGA	50,000	0.547	0.581	0.03	27,560	29,070	28,857	1,296	4.7
AEONCR	10,000	3.700	4.200	0.50	37,270	42,000	41,693	4,423	11.9
GAMUDA	20,000	3.810	3.610	-0.20	76,757	72,200	71,672	-5,085	-6.6
KFIMA	60,000	1.550	1.570	0.02	93,679	94,200	93,512	-167	-0.2
SHARES			(1)		235,266	237,470	235,734	468	0.2
TRUST BALANCE			(2)		14,734		14,734
REALISED GAIN							6,646	6,646
TOTAL SHARES AND CASH ( B+C )			(3)=(1)+(2)		250,000		257,114	7,114	2.85

BUY KFIMA 30,000 SHARE@ RM1.55 PENDING FINANCIAL RESULT DUE END OF MAY 2011

Invest Indonesia:- CIMB-NIAGA. (shares price Rp1710)

Financial Result for year 2010:-

QUARTERLY RESULT	1Q2010	2Q2010	3Q2010	4Q2010	FULL YEAR
NO OF SHARE	24366	24366	24366	24366
NET PROFIT (million)	524,000	605,000	666,000	754,000	2,549,000
EPS (Rp)	22	25	27	31	105

IF CIMB Niaga able to enjoy 30% growth rate compared to previous year, then the forecast result will be as follows:

QUARTERLY RESULT	1Q2011	2Q2011	3Q2011	4Q2011	FULL YEAR
NO OF SHARE	25,131	25,131	25,131	25,131
NET PROFIT (million)	728,000	786,500	865,800	980,200	3,360,500
EPS (Rp)	29	31	34	39	133.7

1Q2011 result recorded 728 billion showed that CIMB Niaga net profit set the benchmark for its net profit above Rp700 billion. With this momentum, I work out the forecast net profit for coming 3 quarters.

Target price for CIMB Niaga based on PER :-

PER based on EPS Rp133.7	Fair Value
11	1,470.91
12	1,604.63
13	1,738.35
14	1,872.07
15	2,005.79
16	2,139.51

Therefore, any downward adjustment on the share price below Rp1700 should provide opportunity to accumulate further on this counter.

Potential return for 9-12 months:
Average cost = Rp1,600-Rp1,700
Target Price = Rp2,150 (potential upside 26%)


GOOD LUCK!

Invest Indonesia - Telco Industry - XL Axiata

For any developing country (especially with huge population), whenever the economy is on upward trend, banking sector and telco sector will definitely enjoy an extraordinary growth rate.

________________________________________________________________


Reference : write-up on 13-2-2011 on XL Axiata. Share price Rp5,200 ( NOW Rp6750 - up by 29% less than 3 months)

The share price move exceeded my target price of Rp6080-Rp6400.


To recap the information given in post dated 13-2-2011:-

Financial Highlight For Fy2010:- (as at 31-1-2011)

1. EPS : Rp 237 (FY09) > Rp 340 (FY10) + 43%
2. Total Asset = Rp 27,251 billion ( RM9.3 billion)
3. Total Liabilities = Rp 18,577 ( RM6.3 billion)
4. Equity = Rp 8,803 (RM 3 billion )
5. Dividend payout policy= 30% of normalised EPS

Comments:
a) Expect earning growth rate of minimum 20% for FY2011.
b) Increase in subscriber base and prepaid and postpaid revenue due to increase in income.
c) Expect record EPS for FY2011= Rp380 - Rp400
d) Target price = Rp6080 - Rp6400 based on 16x PER for Fy2011 ( upside 23% )
e) Therefore, any adjustment below Rp5000 will provide good opportunity to accumulate this counter.

________________________________________________________________________
Therefore, the next 2 telco companies to watch out :

1. INDOSAT - Rp5,300
2. TLKM - Rp7,700


Another Counter To Consider : TLKM.JK , Largest telco company in Indonesia. 52.47% owned by Indonesia government
1. Price = Rp7,600, Target Price 11,200 based on 16X PER of FY2011. (upside 47%)
2. Expected EPS FY2011 = Rp700

Earnings: It's Growth, but Not as Wall Street Has Known It - CNBC

Earnings: It's Growth, but Not as Wall Street Has Known It - CNBC

Companies like Microsoft [MSFT 25.52 -0.24 (-0.93%) ], PepsiCo [PEP 67.41 0.08 (+0.12%) ], and Coca-Cola [KO 67.88 0.03 (+0.04%) ], unloved on Wall Street, could turn out to be good buys if they can show they justify higher valuations than investors are now willing to give them.

AEONCR -5139

If AEONCR continue with the minimum 15% growth rate for coming 2 years, we should expect to see the following result:

Year 2012 = EPS 60 sen , Dividend = 30 sen ( 50% payout ratio)
Year 2013 = EPS 68 sen , Dividend = 34 sen.

Can you work out the fair value based on dividend yield computation ?

Therefore, target price of at least RM4.20 - 4.50 is achievable for mid-term AND longer term we may see the share price touching RM5.00 - 5.50 level.

China Raises Bank Reserves Again, More Tightening Seen - CNBC

China Raises Bank Reserves Again, More Tightening Seen - CNBC

Invest Indonesia: CIMB Niaga

1Q2011 financial result will be released probably end of April 2011. My estimation for quarterly EPS = Rp34.5 12M 2011 EPS = Rp138 Target price = Rp2070 based on 15x PER. IF, the quarterly result turn out to be better than my estimation, then we may be able to see the share price to move to the target price soon. Therefore, for short term trading strategic: Buy @ 1770 Sell @ 2050 ( potential upside 15.8% ) within a month. GOOD TRY! This counter is good because it provide opportunity for short term investors and long term investors (if client want to invest for time horizon up to 3 years).

Traderszone4U Portfolio Update-11-4-2011

TRADESZONE4U PORTFOLIO			SINCE:	25-10-2011
CAPITAL (RM)	250,000		TO-DATE RETURN			5.23	%
Company	Qty	Ave Cost	Current Price	Total Cost	Mkt Value	P/ L	%
			11-4-2011
CIMB NIAGA	50,000	0.547	0.6052	27,560	30,038	2,478	8.99
AEONCR	10,000	3.700	4.0600	37,270	40,303	3,033	8.14
GAMUDA	20,000	3.810	3.8400	76,757	76,239	-518	-0.67
KFIMA	30,000	1.550	1.6100	46,500	47,947	1,447	3.11
SHARES			(1)	188,088	194,527	6,440	3.42
TRUST BALANCE			(2)	61,912	61,912
REALISED GAIN					6,646	6,646
TOTAL SHARES AND CASH ( B+C )			(3)=(1)+(2)	250,000	263,086	13,086	5.23
						-

AEONCR (5139)- Good Dividend Yield Counter

Finally, after waiting for 10 months the share price break RM4.00. Recommended on 24-6-2010 @ RM3.90 and continue to call for buy at RM3.70 level. Share price move above RM4.00 pending dividend announcement due mid of April. From April - Sept 2011 ( 6 months period), AEONCR will pay dividend of RM0.23-RM0.25. Therefore, target price of RM4.20-4.30 is achievable. Furtheremore, AEONCR has the ability to issue bonus shares to its shareholders.

Invest Indonesia-Banking - BBTN

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) : Recommended on 20 February 2011- Rp1350 . 5-4-2011 Price : Rp1700 ( up by 25% within 2 months ). Take profit.

Invest Indonesia

WHY Invest Indonesia :

1. Population : 240 MILLION and purchase power of the middle class working group will continue to drive the economy growth.
2. Country is going through a total restructuring/economy revolution in order to be able to compete with other Asian countries.
3. Great opportunities emerge as Indonesia government will continue to upgrade its infrastructure, enhance banking system, implement friendly business policies and Indonesia is rich in natural resources also.

Beside performing bottom up investment approach by zoom into particular stock, i find that a stock screening tool developed by APF Trading may help investors to save a lot of time in picking stock. Expert Stock Screener will help to provide a list of undervalued stock based on fundamental and technical approach and investor can zoom in the particular for further stock analysis.

Invest Indonesia-CIMB and BBTN

BNGA.JK - RP1780 CIMB-Niaga found good support at Rp1650 level (12x PER) and moving steadily toward Rp1850 and Rp2000. Still not too late to accumulate this 5th largest bank in Indonesia. BBTN.JK - Rp1680 ( refer to write-up on 20-2-2011) Break target price for level 1 Rp1600. Next target price Rp1850.

Invest Indonesia:- CIMB-NIAGA..Riding on Indonesia Growth Story

CIMB-Niaga currently trading at 12.5x PER for forward earning year 2011 ( estimate to earn Rp137 per share ). Start to accumulate at this level.

Target Price : Rp2055 based on 15X PER of FY2011. ( potential upside 19% )
Rp2190 based on 16X PER of FY2011 (potential upside 27%)